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[透视] [Kenmu]DXN 5074 德信:肯牧讲故事

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发表于 2011-3-10 18:18 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
德信的故事

自从我在德信楼开始讲故事后,得到很多的同志支持,有些甚至鼓励我出书.我想,在网上贴上故事,也一样能流通,或许出书是没必要吧.不过,由于故事是随着论坛的讨论而展开来的,结构上有些零零散散,是有必要把这些故事整合起来,并编上目录,让要爬楼的同志容易阅读和参考.

故事的威力是巨大的.阿林哥常说,德信的业绩,是讲故事讲出来的.多年来,阿林哥前前后后讲了不少的故事.有产品的故事,公司的故事,兵法的故事,哲理的故事,还有他本人的故事....真的要写出来,恐怕会有很多本厚厚的故事书哩.

我略为把故事分类,分成创办人,公司,产品等项目.还有其他人关于德信的论作,不论是赞成或反对的,都一律归纳.这样我们的故事就多姿多彩了.我阿肯是喜欢彩虹的.

故事分类:

点击下列标题:(画面可能会跳来跳去一阵子,安静下来后就会显示贴子)

阿林哥的故事

公司的故事

产品的故事

兵法和哲理的故事

批评者的故事

关于德信的报道

公司的Q&A

产品的Q&A

其他

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参与人数 1威望 +10 收起 理由
无聊人 + 10 感谢整理和分享

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 18:21 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 kenmu 于 2011-3-13 15:05 编辑

阿林哥的故事

两间华小的故事
德信这优美的一夜










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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 18:21 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 18:21 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 kenmu 于 2011-3-12 01:51 编辑

产品的故事

德信灵芝的来历
发展独特产品及正合奇胜
灵芝的功效









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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 18:22 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 kenmu 于 2011-3-13 15:18 编辑

兵法和哲理的故事

行军千里而不劳,无人也
兵道(一):阿哥的玫瑰
立于不败之地








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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 18:22 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 kenmu 于 2011-3-12 02:27 编辑

批评者的故事
解析 DXN(德信控股)
进一步讨论黑大的论点











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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 18:22 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 kenmu 于 2011-3-10 23:24 编辑

关于德信的报道

新加坡《商业时报》对德信的报道
DXN’s dividend policy a lure











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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 18:23 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 18:23 | 显示全部楼层

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 18:23 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 kenmu 于 2011-3-13 15:14 编辑

其他

两个有趣的小故事

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 18:24 | 显示全部楼层
~~保留~~

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 18:24 | 显示全部楼层
~~保留~~

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 18:25 | 显示全部楼层
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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 19:10 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 kenmu 于 2011-3-10 19:22 编辑

行军千里而不劳,无人也

假设DXN老板不要再来个搞地产的举动,那这公司还有得救。也难怪它要派发Dividend,以免手上有现金会作怪,但这也意味着公司的增长将到此为止?
kinwing 发表于 2010-11-21 19:14

您的见解很有趣,不过也有一定的道理。如果一家公司不再负债了,手头上有不少现金,这家公司就进入稳健期,是不会再给投资者任何惊喜,你的投资就很难开番几倍。所以两年前听说 DXN 的管理层就此展开激烈辩论。 左右为难。 如果贷款发展,公司可以进一步发展,但风险高。如果净资金,风险没有了,公司的发展也可能到此为止,不会再有惊喜了。那该怎么办呢?

最后还是由Dr. Lim 叫板。用了孙子兵法中的一句名言 ‘行军千里而不劳,无人也。’把大局定下来。就是说,行军打仗,进攻了一千里,竟然顺顺利利,一点都不劳累。为什么呢?因为路上没有敌人抵抗呀!用于企业发展,把业务搞大搞强,顺顺利利,没有风险,为什么呢?因为没有竞争对手,为我独尊!那么DXN现在在什么事业上没有竞争对手呢?那就是国际上的灵芝业务!

所以最后的发展是,‘有劳’的事业全部关掉。‘无劳’的事业全面的干。

在 DXN ,‘有劳’的事业如biodiesel 如物业发展需要动用大把资金。幸亏biodiesel的技术是DXN 自己开发的,这些技术可转移去发展美容产品。物业发展龙头已经完成,龙身龙尾有得赚没得赔,不急了。所以全面回收资金,还清债务。
那‘无劳’的事业呢?就是国际业务!所以 Dr. Lim 这两年来拼了老命,甚少在马来西亚,在国际上全面冲刺。事业如雨后蘑菇,全世界都冒出来。

DXN 这两年来,巧妙运用孙子兵法,一方面还清债务,一方面还能全面出击,势头一点都没有慢下来。不会像那些净资金走入稳健期不能发展的老化公司。

Dr. Lim 运用孙子兵法是十分出名的。他最有名的一句话是“善战者,立于不败之地而后求战”。所以 DXN 的产品上下游都自己生产,国际业务也自己包办,供应链和营销链不受他人左右。这样子的公司,稳打猛扎(套用 Dr. Lim 的话),又稳又能成长,所以您也别太担心啦。


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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 19:29 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 kenmu 于 2011-3-10 19:40 编辑

The Sponge Theory 海绵理论

Any bad news for DXN?

Potential risks or something like that?

Does Management still intend to diworsify or does something silly?
calm88 发表于 2010-11-24 16:12

The only bad news for DXN is too many people know too little about  DXN. Please join DXN and drink more lingzhi coffee like 炭炒 jj, it will enlighten u. hehe

As for the risk,  there is always an intrinsic risk for any MLM company. Which Dr. Lim has called it 'the sponge theory'. It goes like this, the market is like a sponge, the product is the water. When an MLM first activate the market, the market will suck up the product like a dry sponge on water. This is due to the fact that you need buffer stocks to run the business, and member wanted to go for a higher level and they will purchase more products. At this stage you will see the rapid growth of sales of the company, it can shoot from one million per month to over 10 millions in less than two years time. Then the market start to get saturated with the buffer stocks and many members have achieved the position they wanted, so the purchase will slow down, coupling with the release of the huge buffer stock at hand, the sales of the company started to consolidate and drop quickly. That is the most risky moment for an MLM company. As when the sales is going up, the company see a lot of cash in the company, but this is not the real money for the company, as much of it has to be paid as bonus to members next month. If the management  misjudged the condition and spend the money, the company might burst. The reason is simple, when the sales started to consolidate and drop, suddenly the cash in hand started to dwindle quickly, as the collection is poor but you have to pay bonuses for the previous months of better sales. This sponge theory apply to any MLM company that depend on only one or two markets.  Even the company get through the consolidation safely, it will take years before the market reactivates again, and many members and investors will leave your company due to poor performance. At this moment you can see some local MLM companies are experiencing consolidation now. If the management panicked, and wanted to diversify the company in order to generate more sales and maintain the growth, before the new venture materialized, the company is already in big trouble.

In the early days, DXN also committed the common mistake of diversify into various sectors in the hope that it generates sales to offset the market consolidation. It never work. DXN see the market in Indonesia shooting up, burst and consolidate. Then the sales in Philippine also shoot up and drop. The sales in India experience the same thing.  All this happen before DXN is listed. Then the management of DXN realized that there is only one and the only way to cope with this problem, that is, to develop as many markets as possible. So hopefully one market drops, the other surging market will offset the drop. By the time DXN listed in 2003, she has developed into 20 over countries. As u can see from the financial reports, the sales of DXN never consolidate since then. So this risk factor was basically removed when DXN was listed. May be the management at that time feel that the situation still fragile and continue to diversify, again, except for properties development, which the family of Dr. Lim is quite familiar with, the rests just didn't work. The reason is simple, to maintain the international market, it is very taxing and the management just don't have any extra time for none core business.

Later, the sales of Indonesia, Philippine and India picked up and even better than before it consolidated. On top of that, new markets like Middle East, North and Latin Americas, Europe and even Africa are picking up and there are more than 100 countries that trade DXN products now. DXN has finally passed that 'sponge' stage. The foundation is laid and the marketing high way is built.

DXN has long learned the mistakes and this will answer your third question. DXN may not diversify any more and may not do any thing silly again. Once bitten twice shy. Hehe.


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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 22:39 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 kenmu 于 2011-3-10 22:43 编辑

新加坡《商业时报》对德信的报道

Wednesday, 25 August 2010 08:24
(吉隆坡24日讯)由于全球草药市场出现逐年增长的趋势,因此,从事相关行业的德信控股(DXN,5074,消费产品组)展望备受看好。
新加坡《商业时报》报道,根据世界卫生组织估计,目前全球草药产品市场超过7600亿令吉,而到了2050年,这市场将会扩大至超过190兆令吉。因此可以想象,从事这些备受欢迎且健康草药产品的公司会因为庞大的市场需求而受益。
毫无疑问的,德信控股将是其中受益的公司之一。它培育、加工与销售的草药产品约有80种,包括保健食品补充品、草药糖果以及饮品、个人护理、护肤品与家用产品。
该报报道,德信控股分布全球的市场展现出其在草药产品业的实力。
该公司透过多层次营销渠道以及全球网络易能通行证在全世界分销其产品。该全球网络易能通行证分布在150个国家内的400万分名销商。
自成立以来,德信控股无间断的盈利表现更证明其业务能力。迄今,德信控股已经经历两次分别在1997年与2009年的金融危机,然而该公司仍旧保持稳定表现,两次的金融危机都没有构成打击。
在2009财年,尽管适逢金融危机它仍录取强劲业绩,税后盈利达到2842万令吉,等同按年成长了40%。
更甚的是,该公司首季度业绩录取100%的按年成长。拥有这些理想业绩,跟其他公司比较,德信控股目前的交易价格低于其合理价格。
股价具有95%上涨潜能
A.A.安东尼证券公司将德信控股列为“短线买入”评级,认为目前股价隐含95%的潜在上涨。这远较一般短线买入评级的30%底线涨幅为高。
今天闭市时,德信控股报88仙,下跌2.5仙或2.76%,成交量为81万3000股。
新加坡《商业时报》报道,善用庞大的多层次营销渠道来创造与维持客户的忠诚度是德信控股成功的诀窍之一。
本着独特的“一个世界一个市场”概念,德信控股提出“免费更新会员计划”,让全球客户都感到满意。此计划也同时让客户在购买或分销活动中接获红利,无论身处在其世界哪个角落的营运站。
由此,简化与方便了客户与分销商在进行购买或赞助下线的程序,德信控股得以确保他们继续成为其网络成员。
除了草药产品的核心业务外,德信控股也在2006年进军产业发展,透过旗下全资子公司德信置地(DXNLand)进行营运。它专注在投资优质产业,发展项目包括已经完工的槟城Richmont公寓以及目前进入第二阶段工程的吉打州星际乡区(Stargate township)。
2006年进军产业发展
过去的12个月,德信控股积极稳固其业务。最近一次的策略为一套全面的内部重组活动,以改善制造加工与资本管理程序,包括生产线较高水平的自动化。
排除重整活动的初期投资,德信控股盈利赚幅上涨10.93%,比去年的7.35%为高。这些成长与资金状况显著的改善允许该公司提早偿还抵押贷款债务,同时保持资金松动推出更多未来计划。
上述未来计划包括加强德信控股在欧洲与拉丁美洲的网络,二市场皆具有巨大潜能。该公司也已开发出全新的草药护肤与化妆品生产线,涵盖已为市场广泛接受的芦荟系列以及预定在第三季推出的维他命E抗老化系列。以上两项系列由德信控股内部研发机构全新研发。

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 22:49 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 kenmu 于 2011-3-10 22:54 编辑

DXN的成绩并没有怎么样?

Q: dxn的业务早就开发了外国市场,成绩并没有怎么样。本地市场也饱和状态,没有什么特别改变。这显示了dxn的成长能力是低迷的。当然,目前dxn有大户在炒,股价可以起很多。但是,基本面是没有改变的。5年前不会改变的业务,5年后同意的管理层也是不会改变的。


A: DXN的业务这几年是发展迅速的,在两年内能还清近亿元的债务,其国外生意从上市时的20多国到目前的150多国,是大马最大的MLM输出公司,怎能说是成长能力低迷?
目前DXN的股价比起同僚还是具有吸引力的,并没有迹象有大户在炒。



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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 23:07 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 kenmu 于 2011-3-10 23:10 编辑

马币的升值会对DXN造成太大的影响吗?

马币的升值应该不会对DXN造成太大的影响。DXN已经安然渡过1997和2009的经济危机。也经历了2块多马币换1美元,到马币降至4块多,peg在3块多等的汇率风雨路。目前马币略为加强对一个有十多年面对汇率风波的公司是没有问题的。


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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 23:16 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 kenmu 于 2011-3-10 23:22 编辑

DXN’s dividend policy a lure

Written by Daniel Khoo   
Tuesday, 28 September 2010 12:01

The Edge Financial Daily

KUALA LUMPUR: DXN Holdings Bhd’s share price has added 14.3% since it announced a dividend policy of paying out at least 50% of the group’s net profit to shareholders on Sept 23.

To make its dividend policy more attractive, DXN said it would pay the dividend on a quarterly basis, with immediate effect.

The dividend payout could translate into attractive yield for shareholders, provided that DXN could maintain its strong 1QFY11 (FY ends Feb 28) earnings in the subsequent quarters.

The multi-level marketing (MLM) company reported a net profit of RM10.08 million or 4.43 sen a share in 1Q, which had doubled year-on-year (y-o-y). While revenue had only increased 4.7% y-o-y for the quarter, earnings were boosted by improved pre-tax margin to 18.5% from 10.1% due to better cost efficiencies in its core business.

If annualised, DXN’s full-year FY11 earnings per share could total 17.72 sen a share of which a minimum 50% payout would mean a gross distribution of at least 8.86 sen, or 7.4% yield based on DXN’s closing price of RM1.20 yesterday. In FY10, DXN posted a net profit of RM28.41 million or 12.38 sen a share.

There is currently no routine coverage on the stock, but two consumer sector analysts said DXN may start to attract more interest from the investing community, like another MLM outfit Hai-O Enterprise Bhd (Hai-O).

Hai-O
Hai-O was a stellar performer in the MLM industry, and its share price reflected that fact until recently when the counter faltered due to overstocking concerns.

The stock saw a strong run-up of 393% from its two-year low of RM1 on Oct 28, 2008 to reach a high of RM4.93 on March 17, 2010, beating the performance of Bursa Malaysia’s broader market.

But the stock’s rally had ended as the company had been affected by the revised direct selling act, which had tightened regulations in the MLM industry to stop members from front loading stocks, as this could subsequently lead to members not being able to sell the excess stocks.  

“It (the Act) also deters MLM leaders/members who were previously front loading to continue their recruitment activities as they are now unable to make quick profits as they did previously,” said RHB Research in an earlier report.

Hai-O’s shares closed at RM3.20 last Friday near its nine-month low of RM2.96 recorded on Sept 1, 2010.

However, RHB Research states that “we believe that Hai-O will be able to pull through and come back stronger in the longer term, with members of higher quality and productivity”.

Market observers said DXN and other MLM players could restrategise their marketing plan to adhere with the revised direct selling Act. Nonetheless, they said the impact of the Act was less severe on DXN, whose stronger profit in 1Q was due to better operating efficiencies and not caused by a short spurt of growth in revenue due to its members front loading on stocks.

86% of revenue from a broad base of overseas market
DXN is an international MLM company founded by Datuk Dr Lim Siow Jin in 1993. It has more than 800,000 million active members. The company, which is based in Malaysia, is well known for its health product Ganoderma or “Ling Zhi mushroom” business.

Its product lines include dietary supplements, food and beverages, personal care products, household products and water treatment systems.

OSK Research in a trading idea note on Aug 13, 2010 states that almost 98% of the products sold via DXN’s MLM network is developed and produced by the company.

What is more interesting is that the group derives 86% of its revenue in FY10 ended Feb 28, 2010 from a broad base of emerging market countries with huge growth potentials like Mexico, Peru, Chile, Hungary, Poland, the Philippines and Indonesia. DXN had also recently established a business entity in Russia.

Lim Siow Jin, the founder who is also executive chairman/CEO of DXN, owns 45.94% of the company’s shares while Lim Boon Yee, DXN’s managing director, owns another 18.6% stake.

The stock closed seven sen higher at RM1.20 yesterday. It had gained 118.2% year to date and valued the company at 8.2 times FY10’s earnings.

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, September 28, 2010.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/i ... -policy-a-lure.html

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 楼主| 发表于 2011-3-10 23:39 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 kenmu 于 2011-3-10 23:44 编辑

德信除了灵芝咖啡,还有什么产品卖得?

  
kenmu 兄,
    DXN最卖得的除了 LingZhi Coffee 以外,还有什么产品?Coffee 好像已占了一大半的 Revenue... 而且Profit margin 也很低, 管理层有什么计划来推广其他产品?因为身边很多都只是喝 LingZhi Coffee 而已, ...
    ASD 发表于 2010-11-25 02:37


Hi ASD 兄,
DXN 最卖得的产品有几种:1。灵芝咖啡 2。灵芝和菌丝 胶囊 3。蓝藻 4。酵素如 morizyme ( 萝苓果酵素),cordypine (虫草凤梨酵素)5。灵芝牙膏和灵芝香皂 6。滤水器等等。

灵芝咖啡虽然利润低,却是DXN的call card, 就是说,破冰产品,由于咖啡好卖,能起占有市场(market penetrating)的功能。市场有了,其他产品顺水推舟,接着销出去。

蓝藻(spirulina)是DXN下一颗明星,DXN已经得到贸工部批准10年蓝藻生产免税,今后几年一定会大力推进。DXN 生产蓝藻也像灵芝一样一条龙作业,从原种的培育,扩大,批量生产,喷雾干燥,进胶囊或打锭(tableting), 全部自家包办。有空你一定要上DXN的厂去看看。在马来西亚像DXN这样敢独竖一格的公司不多,所以常被人家误解。不过 seeing is believing, 多看看是不会带来损失的。

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