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[美国股市] 美股讨论区(谢绝灌水,欢迎资料,看法,判断,经验)

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发表于 2009-7-22 10:37 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 chengyk 于 2009-10-9 19:45 编辑

如题, 感觉上没有什么人讨论美股,希望开一个贴,可以集中对美股有兴趣的投资者交换意见和心得。

先写下我的看法,希望可以得到大家的交流:

美股最近连升7日,士气如虹,我的看法是dow依然有上涨的空间,但是并不会很大,未来日子依然有下跌空间。不过,这似乎与投资者对未来前景乐观程度的关联,如果乐观,继续攀升到9500依然有可能。如果悲观,8000点以下依然可以期待。

目前美国金融体系已经脱离危机,虽然未必会获利,但是崩溃的可能性已经不存在。有见于此,政府的经济配套得以发挥正面效应,美国经济体系开始再恢复正常。

虽然如此,美国经济依然前景崎岖,先有可能弱势美元,再有难控制的失业率。要经济完全恢复正常恐怕要几年。美国经济2010年可能可以成长,但是应该是以小幅度的。只要失业率一天不恢复正常,经济的成长幅度都不可能会大。

这两个问题是政府集中注意要解决的。目前情势看来,赚钱的公司不打算请人,不赚钱的又要大量裁员,所以失业率很难搞,比赤字还难搞。工作的流失不但是很难再创造(消费需求降低,除非东方帮忙),而且一些工作岗位可能是永久消失的。

虽然对经济掌握有一些,但是现在的市场已经难于估计,乐观或悲观是庄家控制。不过,很多东西依然需要再观察。

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发表于 2009-7-22 14:18 | 显示全部楼层
个人觉得最近的市场属于波动震荡型。。。
有资金的可考虑下跌买入,逢高卖出。。。

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发表于 2009-7-22 15:27 | 显示全部楼层
小弟还没去开户,也不懂会不会不够钱跑美国,不过由于美国的波动比较激烈
之前物色了一支比较像nestle,也是老巴持有的kraft。
它原本的品牌是cheese类产品。然而它旗下很多其他品牌的食物
股息可观。
以美国市场为主。
即使未来数年内美国复苏的速度很慢,可是它旗下许多产品还是会保持一定销量。
不过对于楼主来说,可能这些跌不多,也涨不多的股会不合你胃口吗?

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-7-22 15:58 | 显示全部楼层
3# 蚂蚁小弟


哦,kraft 肯定不合我的口味,不过可以肯定是好股。它的产品通街都有,马来西亚那里都可以看到。如果我的对象是kraft,我根本就完全不用头痛,现在就可以分3注然后分三个月买进,完全不用看,等牛市来就可以了。

很可惜我的对象是beta波动非常高的金融股,只要买进的时机错误就会很严重,所以预测市场是我不能不做的事。很头痛。

不过,开这贴就是希望可以和大家更多的讨论,这样就可以发现更多好股,可能选择就会更正确。

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发表于 2009-7-22 16:06 | 显示全部楼层
请问你们如何看待OCNF?

OceanFreight Inc. is a global provider of shipping transportation services. The Company specializes in transporting drybulk cargoes, including such commodities as iron ore, coal, grain and other materials and crude oil cargoes through the ownership and operation of nine drybulk carriers and four tanker vessels. During the year ended December 31, 2006, the fleet of the Company consisted of eight Panamax and one Capesize drybulk carriers and three Aframax and one Suezmax tanker vessels with a total capacity of 1.2 million dead weight tons (dwt) and an average age of 13.9 years.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-7-22 16:32 | 显示全部楼层
以我看,OCNF非常值得留意,虽然不知道可以不可以买进,但是值得观察。公司现金如果没有意外,可能会出现问题,所以要对这公司非常小心。
公司规模不大,上市纪录不久,里面有什么屎我们也不知道,我的建议是继续再观察,要非常小心。

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发表于 2009-7-22 16:50 | 显示全部楼层
你想要讨论的是长期, 还是短期的投资?

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-7-22 16:57 | 显示全部楼层
7# A|X


我希望可以讨论长期的。以长期投资为出发点。当然,对于一些如经济课题是没有长期或短期的,只有看法。又比如对于美国政府的可能态度和方向,也是一些看法。这些看法都是非常宝贵的。

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发表于 2009-7-22 18:55 | 显示全部楼层
在经济开始复苏时,美国就得对通膨的控制伤脑筋了
目前的这种涨势,可以说成是纸上资产的通膨
对于民生还没有重锤的影响
可是当这些纸上资产被套利后,进入民间消费的时候
就会发生通膨效应
在美国复苏刚开始的当儿,当局又要为通膨伤脑筋
毕竟在fiscal上的调控,就是加息吧?
不恰当的力度会把美国在复苏刚开始的时候,再次打入萧条
这也不是我的看法,而是我认同末日博士所说的而已

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发表于 2009-7-22 18:56 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 蚂蚁小弟 于 2009-7-22 19:04 编辑

我会看中kraft的原因,和上述的理由也有关系
通常这类型的公司都很容易在通膨发生的时候把成本转移给消费者

另外,直接用在kraft网页中的function去比较它和DJI、S&P500等等指数的时候,发现它的表现和这些指数不相伯仲。而且在预算美国还会下跌的情况比较有利。因为它有抗跌性质。所谓抗跌性质的股,就是上的话通常跑输大市,而跌的时候,就跌少过大市。这也是为什么8years兄会说,要kraft的话,现在也可以开始分批买入吧。

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-7-23 00:26 | 显示全部楼层
对于美国通膨我不怎么担心,毕竟那还有很远。目前最重要的反而是如何解决失业率。事实上,只要美国的贸易没有红字出现的话,通膨很有可能根本就不会发生。很可惜,贸易红字还是有,如果这问题不解决,美金只会慢慢的末落。

所以,以我的看法,bush的时代已经过去,obama时代是不是会有改变呢?我也很期待。

我乐观的预估未来的美国可能会出现贸易顺差,间接强化美金,再带动低通膨,然后经济再度开始,失业率慢慢减少。不过要这出现,美国必需见少进口,也就是减少消费,然后大量生产出口。

这也就是对美国经济方向改变的期望。如果这些没有发生,那么通膨只是迟早的事,而且肯定会到来。改变美国的经济模式时机已经到来,就看obama会不会改变了。

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-7-24 19:21 | 显示全部楼层
最近美股再度开始乐观。英国经济出现糟糕消息,但是市场是以上升来回应,这可以证明市场的投机和乐观程度再度提高。这是长期投资者的敌人,因为市场过渡乐观。

看起来,未来可能有一天当乐观过渡而事实不是的时候,难免来一场暴跌,就好像一场股灾那样。

经济怎样看都还是有问题,不过牛市是对经济有帮助的,现在的看法就是到底这次牛市会帮忙市场制造多少金钱流量和信心。而间接帮助经济恢复一点,让市场制造绿草假象。

事情会如何发生?不知道,可能性都有。不过可以肯定的是经济问题还没有完全解决,等待应该会是好的选择。

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发表于 2009-7-24 19:42 | 显示全部楼层
12# 8years


8年兄,是不是可以肯定前几个月的底点再出现的几率已经大大减低了?
(如果照目前的看法来看)

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发表于 2009-7-24 22:59 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 嫌疑犯X 于 2009-7-24 23:03 编辑

balance sheet recession 要复元没有十年也要五年吧?

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-7-24 23:56 | 显示全部楼层
13# goodluck88

我甚至有一点认为不可能会回到之前的低点。原因是未来的经济就算衰退,也不会比2月残。金融界的问题就算再爆发,也不可能会比2月时糟糕。

虽然美国经济并没有恢复,但是可以肯定的是已经稳定,要再大跌已经很难。

但是,我非常期望市场再度出现非常悲观的看法。如果市场来到极度悲观时,有可能还会有7+++点出现可以买进。

不过,我认为,短期内,要回去8+++点水平还是可以期待的,毕竟最近的股价已经过度value。

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-7-25 00:01 | 显示全部楼层
14# 嫌疑犯X


这是正常看法,我也非常认同。但是市场炒家并不认同,他们过度乐观,所以我还在等待,我最少也要看看他们的乐观是否正确。

不过,在超级低利率的年代,就算经济不好,市场要炒高股价依然是可能发生的。我甚至认为,就算经济不好,要再造牛市也有可能。只要两个字“乐观”,就足够制造牛市了。因为未来6个月没有人知道会发生什么事,但是只要全部人看好,不管6个月后事实是如何,股市早就飞天了。

所以我前几贴有讲,“看起来,未来可能有一天当乐观过渡而事实不是的时候,难免来一场暴跌,就好像一场股灾那样。”

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发表于 2009-7-25 01:05 | 显示全部楼层
Buffett to CNBC: Invest in Stocks Even At Dow 9000
On Friday July 24, 2009, 11:47 am EDT


Warren Buffett tells CNBC that the economy still isn't showing any signs of life but that doesn't mean investors should stay away from stocks for the long-term.

In a live interview on Squawk Box this morning, Buffett says "business is still flat." But he stresses that doesn't mean he's negative on stocks, predicting the market will revive before the economy does.

"The market is very, very likely to turn up before business. But I don't try and time stocks. I try to price stocks."

He repeats his advice from his "Buy American" op-ed in The New York Times last fall: don't wait to buy stocks until the economy improves. By then, he says, you will have missed the biggest stock gains.

Even with the Dow hitting highs for the year around 9000, Buffett repeats his belief that stocks will outperform cash investments, such as Treasury notes, over the long-term. "I would much rather own equities at 9000 on the Dow than have a long investment in government bonds or a continuously rolling investment in short-term money."

As usual, he points out he is not making any predictions about what the stock market will do in the next coming weeks or months.

Buffett repeats his belief there are "real inflationary possibilities" down the road, due to the massive stimulus being applied to the struggling economy. But he also repeats his view the stimulus is necessary despite the after-effects, because helping the economy recover should be the nation's top priority.

Buffett again endorses Ben Bernanke as Federal Reserve chairman, saying "I don't think you could have anybody better than Bernanke in the job. He understands all the issues."

Buffett's bearish comments today on the economy echo what he's been saying in recent weeks. Earlier this month, Buffett told us consumer sales remained "very, very soft" and about a month ago he said in a live interview on CNBC that he was seeing no "green shoots" on the economy.

Buffett declines to comment on Berkshire Hathaway's recent move to sell about 17 percent of its stake in the credit-rating agency Moody's (NYSE:MCO - News).

Buffett's live interview was designed to promote a new online animated series called Secret Millionaire's Club in which he voices a cartoon version of himself who helps teach kids about finance and investing.


巴老爷出来喊话鸟。。。

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-7-25 01:19 | 显示全部楼层
17# goodluck88


是时候美股要跌鸟

这两年,和老巴唱反调的人通常会赢钱。

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-7-25 01:22 | 显示全部楼层
这文章完全表达了我对经济的看法,无奈股市就是那么乐观,就是要起,我也没有办法,只好继续等待机会。。。。。

Consumers unable to lead economy forward
GDP may grow in third quarter, but it won't be sustainable growth

When the first estimates for the just-concluded second quarter are released next week, they'll probably show that gross domestic product growth was negative for the fourth quarter in a row, the first time that's happened since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

But in the third quarter (which began July 1), the GDP will probably turn positive. Some will take that news as a sign that the recession is over, that fiscal stimulus should be abandoned, that money growth should be reined in, and that the Federal Reserve should begin raising its interest rate target back to a normal level.

However, a wide range of economists - from Nouriel Roubini to Ben Bernanke - say the economy will remain weak for a year or longer.

"Job insecurity, together with declines in home values and tight credit, is likely to limit gains in consumer spending," Fed Chairman Bernanke told Congress earlier this week "The possibility that the recent stabilization in household spending will prove transient is an important downside risk to the outlook."

"The over-indebted U.S. consumer -- whose deleveraging process yet has to start -- will likely continue to put the brakes on consumption, while the savings rate continues to creep up," said Roubini, head of RGE Monitor and one of the few economists credited with seeing this recession coming.
GDP counts output, not outcomes

To understand how GDP could be up with the economy still down, it helps to know how GDP is calculated. GDP is a measure of output, not outcomes. In the short run, the economy can produce more stuff without creating more jobs, and without boosting wages, profits or living standards.

GDP is calculated as the sum of all goods and services produced in the United States. It counts the production of goods and services sold to consumers, businesses, government agencies, and foreign buyers (while subtracting imported stuff that we consume). It counts investments in homes, businesses, and government projects. And finally, it counts the things that were made, but not sold - in other words, inventories.

Inventories fell by a record amount in the first and second quarters. At some point, probably in this quarter, businesses will decide they've reduced their overstocks enough to match the lower level of sales.

A similar process has been occurring in the home building sector for nearly four years. The decline in building has slowed and has perhaps bottomed. Home building could actually add to GDP in the third quarter for the first time since 2005.

The trade balance is also likely to add to growth in the third quarter. Imports continue to fall while exports could be ready to rise again as the global recession winds down.

If inventories, exports and home building each add a bit to growth, and business investments drop only modestly after their record plunge in the first quarter, the economy could reach a positive GDP number without any contribution from the consumer sector at all.
Final demand flat

To get sustainable growth, however, you need sales to increase, and there is no sign that final demand from consumers or businesses is improving. Retail sales, auto sales, home sales and capital good orders are no longer falling as they were late last year, but they aren't rising either.

"Most elements of demand are essentially flat-lining, and the engine of growth for the recovery is not yet clear," said Andrew Tilton, an economist for Goldman Sachs.

In a normal business cycle, this would be the time for consumers to drag the economy out of the ditch. Buoyed by lower interest rates and improved confidence in their jobs, in past recessions consumers have purchased homes, cars and other durable goods, restoring jobs lost in the downturn and persuading businesses to invest again.

But this time it's different, because consumers don't have the ability to increase their spending. They don't have the income, or the credit. They may not have the desire.

Consumer debt has risen to a record 128% of disposable income, twice the debt level they carried 25 years ago. Their wealth has been shredded, and wages are falling. Credit is hard to obtain, yes, but many consumers are actively trying to reduce their debts, not add to them.

Consumers are in no position to drive the economy forward and, until they are, businesses won't expand. Already, industrial capacity utilization has fallen to a record-low rate, indicating that companies have plenty of idle capacity to deploy before they need to build more.

The American economy has become more and more dependent on consumer spending over the years. In the 1960s, consumer spending accounted for about 63% of GDP. In the 1990s, it rose to 67%. But now it's at a record 72%, thanks to the massive debt load consumers are carrying.

To achieve sustainable growth, either the consumer must spend more, or the economy must restructure to become less reliant on the consumer.

Unfortunately, either option will take time. Researchers at the San Francisco Fed found that it could take until 2018 for consumers to deleverage enough to be satisfied. If consumers raise their savings rate from near zero during the bubble to 10% by 2018, it would cut three-quarters of a percentage point off the typical 3.5% growth in consumer spending, according to researchers Reuven Glick and Kevin Lansing.

No jobs, no wage growth

It might take years for the labor market to fully recover as well: Most members of the Federal Open Market Committee said they expected it "to take five or six years" to bring the unemployment rate down to its long-run potential of around 5%.

Job losses have slowed, but they haven't stopped. The unemployment rate is expected to peak near 11%, according to Roubini. With a current jobless rate of 9.5%, there are now nearly six unemployed people for every job opening. For the first time since the Depression, most of those who are unemployed have lost their jobs permanently.

With so much competition for jobs, wages are dropping. The total wage bill for private industry has fallen at a nearly 5% annual rate over the past six months, the largest decline in the 50 years those data have been kept.

The only thing adding to income growth right now is government transfers, either from automatic stabilizers such as unemployment insurance or from the tax cuts in the stimulus package. Income from private sources declined in all 50 states during the first quarter.

The stimulus has now ramped up. While more money will be coming from Washington each month, the level won't increase. Economist Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research figures we need $1 trillion in extra stimulus per year to drive the employment back to 5%, but we're getting only about a third of that.

The worst of the economic crisis is now behind us, but that doesn't mean the economy is all fixed.

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发表于 2009-7-25 01:28 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 蚂蚁小弟 于 2009-7-25 01:32 编辑

我的看法是,我们目前得到的资讯属于比较top down,从上而下的观点,比较宏观
所以肯定会比较倾向悲观。
可是老巴会喊话的原因,是因为他看到bottom up,从下而上的观点,比较细微
所以他会比较倾向乐观。

至于美国目前的情况,是否会进入stagflation呢?
8years兄是说过你不觉得通膨是近期问题吧?其他人又怎么看呢?

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