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dailyklse2010专区:我要为论坛注入新活力,我的启蒙论坛你怎么了?

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发表于 2019-7-30 18:16 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 dailyklse2010 于 2019-8-16 14:04 编辑

2010-2018我连续赚了8年啦 (对我来说,空仓放定期也算赚)! 可惜2019年还是账面亏损,我的记录被破了吗?

大家好~

1990年出生的我今年29岁了。



    从2010年开始懵懵懂懂的投入股票市场也有一段时间了,挨过了没有身边人的教导也没有付费上课拿TIPS的时间。现在开始慢慢的摸索了自己投资的一个能小赚钱的套路。想在此记录下我这段时间以来买卖的原因与心情。



在2010年至2014年选股与次序如下,



YTL-4677

我人生里的第一支股。当时完全对股票没有基础的概念,也不知道在听到YTL 叫 yang tahan lama 的别称。就抱着试试水的心情买入,只求不输钱的心态。经过了几个月几乎没动的lama股价。耐不住性子卖了。

买入:1.50

卖出:1.53

总结:没做功课,什么都不懂



UNISEM-5005

买入:1.205

卖出:1.31

买入原因:已从高峰2.50掉去1.205自觉掉很多不会在掉了加以往业绩还算不算

卖出原因:业绩开始转差至亏,整体行业情况不佳。趁还有赚时快快卖了

总结:大致了解公司业务,持有时间约1-2个月



SYSCORP-5173

买入:0.425

卖出:0.435

总结:开始接触技术性操作的知识。纯粹靠技术图买卖,持有时间不长 (1-2星期)



BJCORP-3395

买入:1.00

卖出:1.01

买入原因:单位股价相对便宜的蓝筹,当时只想买蓝筹收一段时间,心想蓝筹应该以长期来讲应该会稳定而缓慢的上升。

卖出原因:网上论坛里太多这间公司老板的负面评。越看越怕,睡都睡不好。没赚钱但没亏,卖了好睡觉

总结:买入没有做好功课,事后才来担心。持有时间超短 (10日以内)



NAIM-5073

买入:1.71

卖出:1.90

买入原因:当时油气股很HOT,子公司DAYANG已经起到不清不楚。以当时持有DAYANG的股数和现有的工程计算是属于低估的。

卖出原因:对当时刚学股票的我来说买很多下叻,有赚10%+ 还不卖就又要睡不着了。哈哈

总结:谢谢分享的大大,虽然我不记得他是谁。开始学计算公司价值,看公司年报。自我感觉良好算是入门了。持有时间(3月)



MUDAJYA-5085

买入:2.40

卖出:2.63

买入原因:当时的它基本面不错,又有印度发电厂的工程。整体算值得

卖出原因:跟进了几个月,发现印度政府完全诠释了管字两个口。业绩和基本面开始转差

总结:买入了要时刻更近相关新闻,以往的好不代表将来也好。该断时不要犹豫



LATEXX-7064

买入:1.45

卖出:1.36

买入原因:手套股都大涨了一轮,它属于当时最便宜最值得持有的手套股。

卖出原因:业绩亏了。相对其他的手套股效率比较差呢,也难怪它最便宜

总结:最后悔的一支股,卖了一个月不到就被宣布收购。报价2.30,我也断的太潇洒了





GUH-3247

买入:0.91

卖出:1.43

买入原因:净现金公司,业务稳定,股价扣除公司持有现金便宜。

卖出原因:股价回弹,业务没有成长。没有未来卖了套利

总结:欧洲危机风暴新闻不断,大势超卖。净现金比到了某些价位抗跌能力体现,成功抄底。



FITTERS-9318

买入:0.50

卖出:0.68

WA卖出:0.24

买入原因:冷眼的分享,主业务稳定,产业赚钱,能源亏损不大,最主要看好新水管业务。因为新闻一直报道政府暗示要更换水管减低浪费水。

卖出原因: BUDGET公布完全没有【水】,新水管业务前期投入太大无法短期收回。

总结:买在欧洲风暴刚平稳时,消息与公司近况结合推动股价。免费WA在长期来说不好直接卖是不错的决定。





总结2010-2014年:整个市场的是【势】很重要。在欧债危机这段抵挡买入只要不是买的太烂的股都能赚钱。资本 开了一番,成绩还算行。10/2014 - 08/2015 空仓10月。



10/2015年-03/2019



CANONE-5105 (10/2015-03/2016)

买入:2.40

卖出:3.70

买入原因:KIANJOON 收购,如果成功被收购CANONE会赚很多加上业绩不差,马币掉有利出口。

卖出原因:收购案没有下文,从最高峰5.00+往下掉的势和业绩缩水证明它没法从马币跌获利。

总结:论坛大大的分享很棒但自己也要重复计算,大趋势不可逆。ALL IN 持续下跌会担心



CHINWEL-5007 (04/2016-06/2016)

买入:1.65

卖出:1.46

买入原因:高峰回调至合理价格,股息4%+。期盼反弹

卖出原因:利空新闻,欧洲反倾销。季度业绩减半

总结:ALL IN 会把恐慌放大,以公司净现金与减半但不算太差的业绩来说不需要那么担心。



MULPHA- 3905(06/16-06/16)

买入:0.295

卖出:0.25

买入原因:期待MUDAJYA能顺利发电能成功使股价上涨

卖出原因:MUDAJYA 没有好消息,公司业绩转差

总结:我有坏习惯买了一点点才有心情仔细阅读做功课。要改啊。好在只是买一点点的,亏了不痛不痒



06/2016 - 05/2018 几乎空仓全部转 FIXED DEPOSIT 一年4%



PWROOT-7237 (10/2017-05/2018)

买入:2.08

卖出:1.34

买入原因:薪水没加码定期,选消费股吃利息

卖出原因:常年不亏的业绩竟然亏了,业绩变差

总结:为了4% 股息亏死了。好在买不多



TURBO-5167 (04/2018-07/2018)

买入:0.78

卖出:0.66

股数:15000

买入原因:最近想买油气股,亏钱的不敢买。起了不敢追。买个不上不下的。当油价不上不下,维修费还是要给它赚。

卖出原因:油价不知几时起,BAT-4162 ALL IN了而且 70% margin。 Margin 利息贵啊。只好卖了

总结:无成交量的股要卖特难,只好忍痛折价多多卖了。买的人赚了便宜货咯





BAT-4162 (10/2017 - 01/2019)

买入:29.00

卖出:37.40

股数:3800

买入原因:一开始44.00买了一些想收股息,之后的因为新政府上台

卖出原因:新政府让人失望,竞选说的打击走私烟完全没有行动。反而一堆垃圾政策刁难烟民

总结:因为一直有关注,所以当换政府后相信不可能比前政府再差了,加上竞选时没少说要打击走私。大选后的第一天直接ALL IN + MARGIN,可惜钱调的太慢,几乎全买在当天的UPPER LIMIT.为了4% FD 损失了机会呢。



ARANK-7214 (06/2018-06/2018)

买入:0.73

卖出:0.77

股数:4200

买入原因:业绩稳定,股息4%+

卖出原因:短期没有利好,减少MARGIN

总结:如果不是margin,会持续持有直到业绩变差。赚一点就好





AMBANK-1015 (05/2018-07/2018)

买入:3.56

卖出:3.98

股数:3000

买入原因:明显的因为大选因素的panic sell, 股息与PE都显得便宜

卖出原因:Hold 太久 Margin利息要给好多。

总结:卖出时还是值得持有,为了减少margin。



DUFU-7233 (04/2018-07/2018)

买入:1.11

卖出:1.16

股数:9000

买入原因:半导体股轮流起,业绩股息都不错。

卖出原因:Hold 太久 Margin利息要给好多

总结:卖出时还是值得持有,为了减少margin。怎么一卖了股价就开番了啊



CANONE-5105 (07/2018 - 080419)

买入:2.41

卖出:3.00

股数:18900

买入原因:公司年年赚钱,业绩对比股价也物超所值了。

卖出原因:原料价持续维持高点,短期无突破点

总结:管理层野心勃勃,是认真做生意的公司。公司重心开始转移至食品制造,食品制造公司的PE都不低。卖后股价持续突破高点,小后悔但是没关系。





JAKS-4723 (08/2018 - CURRENT)

买入:0.793

股数:250000

买入原因:看好越南发电厂案。

总结: 【阴谋论】之前KYY大量使用margin买入威胁到Mr Ang。因此惨遭狙击以蓄意压低股价导致KYY触发margin call.再以附加股削弱KYY踢他出局。既然使用那么多手段因该是看好自己的公司。所以我当然也要继续持有至2020年,还有漫长时间,不确定性依然。





JAKS-WB (12/2018 - CURRENT)

买入:0.25

股数:15000

买入原因:虽然附加股0.25对比当时母股价钱0.6是超不值得的。但以我的阴谋论支持。买!



CIMB (02/2019 - CURRENT)

买入:5.28

股数:25600

买入原因:和AMBANK一样oversold.股息与PE都显得便宜又有margin safety

总结:以Margin大量买入,能cover margin interest 的股息。价钱对比现在市场与以往的价格属于便宜。如果它再给我掉20%我一定借钱买。





HIBISCS (240419 - CURRENT)

买入: 1.18

股数:50000

买入原因:油价反弹至USD70+,大概自己乱乱算P&L 和 BL如果油价维持USD60-65 大概值1.40.

总结:油价无法预测,股价太被油价影响。因该买在更加便宜因为强力支撑在0.80。以1.18的买入价上涨0.22下跌0.38。下跌比>上升



ARANK-7214 (170419 - CURRENT)

买入:0.52

卖出:

股数:6600

买入原因:业绩稳定,股息4%+

卖出原因:

总结:再战ARANK,看好稳定的股息和业绩



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 楼主| 发表于 2019-7-31 13:20 | 显示全部楼层

TIME, THEME, VALUE 分析

本帖最后由 dailyklse2010 于 2019-8-5 12:56 编辑

说说我的启蒙书籍(稳赚大马- TTV)的观念与现在市场和我的持股:7月份

稳赚大马- 主打: TIME(时机), THEME(主题), VALUE(价值)

TIME: 现在马股没有上扬的趋势。因为相对其他区域股市还是相对来得昂贵。

THEME: 7月份还是科技股的天下,科技股基本面已基本脱离股价。只要相关5G, 晶片,网络的 PE 要超过15是随随便便。政府的大型计划基本延用前朝政府;石油天然气价格趋稳。

VALUE: 小型股的价值对比18年尾已经蛮多各股回弹,感觉现在不是一个很好的买入点



我现在持有的股:
ARANK
股价:0.49-0.52
TIME: 跟随大势
THEME: 铝价
VALUE: 合理


CIMB
股价:5.08 - 5.40
TIME: 跟随大势
THEME: 银行金融
VALUE: 合理


HISBCS
股价: 1.03 - 1.13
TIME: 跟随大势
THEME: 石油
VALUE: 合理


JAKS
股价: 0.73 - 0.82
TIME: 跟随大势
THEME: 越南
VALUE: 合理


JAKS-WB
股价: 0.50 - 0.54
TIME: 跟随大势
THEME: 越南
VALUE: 合理


以我持有的股票没有什么上涨的机会,因为并不符合TIME,THEME,VALUE。








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发表于 2019-7-30 20:29 | 显示全部楼层
楼主好年轻就开始投资了,真厉害

点评

赞  发表于 2019-8-5 14:28

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发表于 2019-7-30 21:00 | 显示全部楼层
liottlion 发表于 2019-7-30 20:29
楼主好年轻就开始投资了,真厉害

成功要趁早

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-7-31 09:06 | 显示全部楼层
liottlion 发表于 2019-7-30 20:29
楼主好年轻就开始投资了,真厉害

其实投资并不难,有心就行了。

点评

加油  发表于 2019-8-5 14:29

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-2 13:52 | 显示全部楼层
我今天又在0.78下单50000 的JAKS了,但买到买不到是另外一回事,之后也会持续在0.78这个价位建仓。

虽然理智上已经说不能再继续用杠杆了,但是非理智大脑发热了。哈哈~虽然头脑发热不是没理由,可是理由要成立还是要看越南的工程是否能预期完成和未来的营运状况。

有可能这会是一个错误的决定。因为我的资金管控开始失衡了,但这也是我的机会。我是不建议有人和我一样使用杠杆买入JAKS的,因为我帮我家人打理的另外两个户口都没疯狂的买入,毕竟国外工程还有一年多才能完成且营运的。这使得不确定性太高了。最好的例子莫过于MUDAJYA政府的变卦直接影响现有和未来的营运。越南一党制的变卦机率应该相对较小(其实我自己也没有正确的概念)。

现在的我属于1/4投机,1/4赌博,2/4投资的心态了。这样非常不好,可我现在的情况和疯狂买入某一支股的人差不多了吧。都觉得自己持有的股未来会持续的更加好,高PE,高不确定,高负债这些都没法让我们醒目吧。

在这里让个大家做个见证,未来的我会开心的笑还是伤心的忏悔着我的决定吧。

点评

加油  发表于 2019-8-5 14:29

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发表于 2019-8-2 14:09 | 显示全部楼层
dailyklse2010 发表于 2019-8-2 13:52
我今天又在0.78下单50000 的JAKS了,但买到买不到是另外一回事,之后也会持续在0.78这个价位建仓。

虽然 ...

好奇买入jaks的理由。。。。

虽然越南发电厂看似包赚,可是这工程也不是容易,牵涉的人物太多。

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-2 14:31 | 显示全部楼层
Myvan 发表于 2019-8-2 14:09
好奇买入jaks的理由。。。。

虽然越南发电厂看似包赚,可是这工程也不是容易,牵涉的人物太多。

看好越南发电厂的投资,就和现在买入JAKS的大家的理由一样吧。最近看JAKS的股价表现也是有开始有起的趋势。如果说信心从哪里来的话就是从MR ANG的股权也从去年的8%+ 来到了 13%。如果一个执行人对自己公司没信心是不可能持续的认购+买入自家的公司。而且越南现在的发展还有对外资态度也算正面的。

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-5 13:25 | 显示全部楼层
dailyklse2010 发表于 2019-8-2 13:52
我今天又在0.78下单50000 的JAKS了,但买到买不到是另外一回事,之后也会持续在0.78这个价位建仓。

虽然 ...

今天中午成功增持JAKS RM0.78- 100,000 unit。平均价拉低至RM0.833 股数达到 150,000 unit。

增持后的MARGIN的LSR%也达到了 62.30。 MARGIN对比本金 (177,500 : 150,000)。 在等一星期左右卖屋子的钱将汇入户口,所以目前暂时无法再继续增持JAKS。

近期我的投资组合下跌蛮猛的,看来我18年-19年的盈利很快将会被账面亏损摊平。目前的账面亏损累积达到 RM 23,000。 已兑现盈利 RM 38,000。

持续保持平常心,与等待时机增持。

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发表于 2019-8-8 19:52 | 显示全部楼层
dailyklse2010 发表于 2019-8-5 13:25
今天中午成功增持JAKS RM0.78- 100,000 unit。平均价拉低至RM0.833 股数达到 150,000 unit。

增持后的 ...

Kawan Dailyklse2010,
你把share margin financing 得来的资金投入到一个不确定性极高的项目。

向JAKS这种不确定极高的项目,KLSE比比皆是,
阁下为何钟情JAKS?

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-10 12:08 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 dailyklse2010 于 2019-8-10 12:38 编辑
kok1984 发表于 2019-8-8 19:52
Kawan Dailyklse2010,
你把share margin financing 得来的资金投入到一个不确定性极高的项目。


Hi Kok1984,

你说的对,KLSE还有很多很好的股。但是我能力有限没法兼顾跟踪太多的股票。JAKS是我跟踪蛮久的股,所以了解的比其它股票多。


以政治角度看股票:

以我个人的看法:其实政府颁发的项目工程很多是看起来确定性很高但其实不然。比如我国前朝政府的颁发的工程,项目合约。当改朝换代后因合约纠纷导致股价大跌的股票比较有标志性的如:MYEG, GKENT & 其它官联股...
近期群众开始对我国的新政策好像蛮有偏见的,如果这样持续恶化下去会不会真的可能希盟就只能当一届政府呢?当换政府时会不会有接二连三出现新的MYEG和GKENT?毕竟现在马来西亚的项目都是属于长期工程

JAKS投资的越南项目会不会是反之看起来不确定很高但其实不然呢?
越南是社会主义国。越南共产党也是越南唯一合法政党和执政党,党的施政也不会因每逢两党竞选时敌对党之间互相的拆塔或以对现有政策的批判来获得选票。我个人有关注的国家:美国优先(这也导致美国退出了TPP), 英国的脱欧, 马来西亚合约再检讨,台湾蓝绿对中国态度。国内政治的不确定才是项目的不确定。


所以说了那么多JAKS会不会因为政治的不确定而使得项目不确定升高呢?
2016年1月18日的越南的党选后的下次的党选是2021年1月。JAKS的发电厂预计2020年尾就能完成。所以短期说EPC来说的变数其实相对较小,真正的不确定和最赚钱的将是这25年的营运。将来的25年我是没能力预测了,但只要越南共产党不要有什么大变就没问题~所以短期JAKS对我的MARGIN是安全的。




以上是我的个人观点,如有什么自我曲解。请各位包含









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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-10 13:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 dailyklse2010 于 2019-8-10 15:28 编辑

假期悠闲的我来算算我的MARGIN户口与规划:

我卖屋子的款项收到后全数放入了我的股票户口这也让我MARGIN的LSR%下降至32.5%。MARGIN对比本金 (78,500 : 250,000).

PUBLIC BANK MARGIN 的ECP如下:

SHARE  ECP UNITS VALUE
ARANK  0.45 6600 2970
CIMB   5.04 25600 129024
HIBISCS 0.90 50000 45000
JAKS 0.44 150000 66000


总和ECP VALUE: RM 243,000 * 32.5% = RM 78,500+ (总借贷额)

如果JAKS掉0.73 时再增加100,000 UNITS。         
ECP: 100,000 * .44 = 44,000

RM 79,000 + RM 73,000 = RM 152,000 (增持后的总借贷)
ECP VALUE AFTER ADDED IN: 243,000 + 44,000 = 283,000

LSR% : 152,000 / 283,000 = 54%

中MARGIN CALL 大概是LSR 70% 左右。要掉多少才会中呢?
100/70 * 152,000 = 217,000

283,000 - 217,000 = RM 66,000 (MARGIN CALL 还须扩大的亏损额)

假设我的持有股票下跌至:
SHARE  ECP UNITS VALUE
ARANK  0.4 6600 2640
CIMB   3.8 25600 97280
HIBISCS 0.60 50000 30000
JAKS 0.35 250000 87500


我的持有的股价大概需要下跌至以上的价位才会中MARGIN CALL。 所以说基本要等金融风暴来才会有机会中,到时就要靠REFINANCE和PERSONAL LOAN 来度过难关了。




点评

算得很细. 看来真的有信心.  发表于 2019-8-12 21:46

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发表于 2019-8-11 11:06 | 显示全部楼层
cimb 的業績如果月再降息的話,會受到影響。

泰國印尼也已經降息了,它在哪裡的業績也會受到影響。長期應該會下探 rm4.8~rm5

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-11 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
015135 发表于 2019-8-11 11:06
cimb 的業績如果月再降息的話,會受到影響。

泰國印尼也已經降息了,它在哪裡的業績也會受到影響。長期 ...

对,你说的可能发生。但是CIMB 的ECP VALUE对我的MARGIN ACC太重要了。所以说我的CIMB基本已经和我的投资组合绑死了。

现在的CIMB在我的投资组合只能是继续持有或者是暴跌后加码增加的两种选择。如果减持CIMB的话其他的股票也只能跟着调整了,这不是我希望的呢。

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-12 14:52 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 dailyklse2010 于 2019-8-12 15:08 编辑

KLSE 失败的发电投资: MUDAJAYA & MELEWAR

借鉴大大的分享,说说JAKS。

MUDAJAYA 失败的主因可以说说是印度政府的善变和诚信问题而导致。

MELEWAR 失败的主因可以说是因为内部管理与过低的标价而导致亏损。

MELEWAR 亏损不断

JAKS 会重蹈他们的后路吗?


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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-16 13:48 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 dailyklse2010 于 2019-8-16 14:18 编辑
dailyklse2010 发表于 2019-8-10 13:40
假期悠闲的我来算算我的MARGIN户口与规划:

我卖屋子的款项收到后全数放入了我的股票户口这也让我MARGIN ...


我又加码了100,000 Unit- RM0.735 的JAKS 了。


我的平均价下降到了 RM0.793。 之后真的无力加码了。MARGIN也越来越危险啦。没关系,自我安慰挨过就雨过天晴,挨不过就遭殃。已经做好了亏钱的心里准备。但是真的面临亏钱是应该还是会不淡定吧。

已经违背了我以往的买股原则。 TIME=错的买入时间点, THEME=还行, VALUE=目前并不觉得有比其他股突出

如果说为什么还要持续的买入JAKS,买的应该是未来的希望。毕竟越南的工程2020年尾能按时交付之后也顺利营运的话,回酬方面肯定是正面的。


粗略计算短期以内季度EPS应该会介于2-4 CENT

JAKS-POWER PLANT 工程发展总而 RM 7 B
3月尾- 54% 完成度; 2020年尾会建成-剩余46%将会计入接下来的7个季度营业额。
也就是说 RM970 MIL(RM7B*30%*46%) / 7Q = RM 138 MIL/Q * 18% = RM 24.8 MIL
RM24.8MIL  / 643MIL SHARE = 3.85 SEN (未扣除其他SEGMENT亏损与营运开销)

保守 2.5 cent/Q 的话19年EPS是 10 CENT, 以现在的投资情绪+未来的不确定。PE应该在 6-7倍左右。

所以总结来说:以我JAKS平均价说,还是有些昂贵的。但是还在能接受的范围。如果EPS有多就是我的BONUS啦。哈哈  






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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-16 16:00 | 显示全部楼层



在Blog的截图,大大的担心也是2021年正式营运时JAKS最需要的关注的事项。如果无法获得正现金流就会面临严重借贷的危机。这也是为什么好多股友喜欢GEMN,毕竟它的现金流是真强。

JAKS最近酬了钱所以说短期现金流还是没问题的。太长远的变数太多,太早计算也是没用。等公司的能见度比较清晰了再来重新看一篇吧。

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-8-16 16:10 | 显示全部楼层
i3investor 大大的意见,保留做参考用途


1. 40% ownership which currently not materialise yet

The option to purchase 10% from CPECC at cost plus carrying cost expires on the 3rd anniversary after the commercial operation date (COD). My estimate is it will cost around RM270m for the additional 10%. Based on the past distributions of Mong Dong 2, Jaks will receive about RM120m a year based on 30% sharing. Therefore, even without fresh funds, Jaks is able to exercise the 10% option with distributions from the power plant.



2. Assuming zero delays

The deadline for unit one shall be 48 months and 54 months for unit 2 after the construction start date which was agreed to be 1st Oct 2016.

The JV agreement provided that Jaks resources (JRB) shall execute subcontract agreement with CEEC in relation to its scope of work under the EPC Contract 2. Therefore, Jaks is not directly involved in the construction of the power plant.

Is there any reason to doubt the chinese partner's capability in completing the power plant on time?

"CEEC is an ultra-large backbone enterprise engaged in a complete business chain ranging from power planning & engineering consultation, engineering, project contracting, equipment manufacturing to investment and operation. With a registered capital of RMB26 billion, currently the company has total assets of RMB187.5 billion and more than 160,000 employees. In 2013, it registered RMB158 billion operating revenues and RMB4.2 billion profits. It is an engineering group featuring the greatest comprehensive strength, largest scale and broadest market in the energy engineering field of China. Domestically, the company undertakes most of the fossil fuel power and grid projects engineering and takes up 2/3 of fossil fuel power construction market and 1/3 of hydropower construction market. It has undertaken the engineering work for more than 200 major projects in over 20 countries and regions, and contracted projects in over 80 countries and regions around the world. Energy China was ranked the 465th in the Fortune Global 500 in 2014, its subsidiary CGGC was ranked the 37th in the Top 250 Global Contractors, and another of its subsidiaries CPECC was ranked the 42nd in the Top 150 Global Design Firms, all of them forming a main force in the energy engineering field both at home and abroad."

Why should anyone doubt CECC's ability to complete the power plant on time especially after it has just completed, 6 months ahead of schedule, an equivalent 1,200MW Vinh Tan 1 thermal power plant in central vietnam recently ?



3. Zero cost escalation(in capex & opex) in next 25 years

The power purchase agreement (PPA) allows the capex and opex to be adjusted based on the US CPI for US dollar denominated costs, and Vietnam CPI for Don denominated costs. Hence, cost escalations due to inflation will not impact the profitability of the power plant.

The PPA provides for EVN to purchase and the BOT Company to sell electricity generating capacity and electricity generated by the Facility for 25 years after the commercial operation date of the Facility unless extended or earlier terminated as stipulated under the PPA. The tariff charged by JAKS Hai Duong to EVN comprises the capacity charge, energy charge and supplemental charge. Fuel (coal and secondary fuel) and limestone costs will be passed-through costs under the PPA.

Therefore, fluctuation in fuel costs has no impact on the power plant operations.



4. No changes in government(incl policies)in the next 25 years

JHDP company may terminate the BOT contract due to Vietnam side default or government events such as war, invasion, terrorist, revolution, strikes, none performance of GGU, change of laws.

The BOT contracts signed with MOIT provides that if there is any change in government policies that would jeopadise the interests of the operators, the MOIT will compensate the operators for the losses as a result of the changes.

Change in Government ?

There is no democratic election in Vietnam. It is a socialist republic with a one-party system led by the Communist Party of Vietnam.



5. Forex remains unchanged for next 25 years(@RM 4.15:1USD)

Forex will not remain unchanged forever. Fluctuation in US$ and Don will not affect the operation of the power plant. This is because all debts, interest, revenue and cost components are based in US$ or Don. All these cash flow components are matched to eliminate or minimise currency risks.

However, as far as Jaks is concerned, future distributions from JHDP are exposed to US$/RM exchange risks. Higher US$/RM rate will incease Jaks' earnings from Vietnam and vice versa.



6. No financial difficulty in loan servicing on the USD1.4 bil for both Jaks and CPECC.

JHDP will be responsible for the loan repayments. I have extracted the following from my article "Understanding Jaks Hai Duong thermal power plant in Vietnam".

"Based on financing agreement of Mong Duong 2, the BOT company to maintain debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) of 1.4x – 1.5x

http://www.academia.edu/26270684 ... ect_the_Largest_...

The ratio of (Operating income before interest and depreciation) / (Total loan principal and interest payments) must be above 1.5x otherwise the loan defaults.

As the loan is non-recourse in nature and the collateral is a non-movable object with no market resale value, the banks would require very high certainty in earnings. In this case the capacity payment alone in the PPA which guarantee fixed annual payment for the tenure of the project must at least meet the DSCR requirements.

Based on Jaks' Vietnam IPP loan of US$1.402b, interest of 6% (Est), Loan tenure of 18 years
Annual principal repayment = 1.402b / 18 = 77.8m
1st year interest repayment = 1.402b x 6% = 84.1m

Based on 1.5x DSCR, Minimum operating income EBITA = (77.8+84.1) x 1.5 = US$242.85m
Annual depreciation = 1.8685b / 25 = 74.7m
Hence, Net Operating income = US$242.85 – 75.7 – 74.7 = US$92.45m
Jaks 40% = US$92.45 x 40% x 4.15(us/rm) = RM153m / 546m = RM0.28 EPS

In practice, the earnings must be much higher to be of comfort to protect the company from loan default risk due to earning fluctuations. "

Therefore, there is very high certainty that JHDP will not default on its loans.



7. Assuming interest rate at 6% for the next 25 years.

The loan is USD denominated and its tenure is 18 years. The Fed Fund Rate is currently 2.25 - 2.5%. Recently, in fear of large scaled economic slowdown, the US Fed has signaled no rate hike in 2019.

High interest rate is detrimental to economic growth globally. As seen during the economic crisis in 2008, US Fed lowered its Fed Fund rate aggressively to restore growth.

A moderate monetary policy is necessary to maintain a vibrant economy while keeping a check on inflation. Therefore, US Fed is not expected to adopt aggressive tightening policy on interest rate going forward.

Interest rate will always fluctuate within a norm. It will not stay too high or too low over a long period of time. Hence, not a concern over a long term period.

In any case, there are financial instruments to hedge against interest rate risks available to the company which can be employed during periods of adverse movement in interest rate.



8. Assuming no financial crisis in Vietnam that impacts on demand of electricity despite the "guarantee of payment".

Vietnam is anticipating a potential power shortage in the next decade largely due to its projected rapid growth.

Viet Nam will likely face a power shortage in the period 2020-30 if electricity generation is not increased and there is not enough fuel (coal and gas) for generation.

The warning was made at the Viet Nam Energy Forum held by the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) in Hanoi on Thursday. Aug 9 2018

According to Viet Nam Electricity (EVN), to meet electricity demand for socio-economic development up to this year, EVN has completed 40 power plants with total capacity of 20,586MW.

By the end of 2018, total installed capacity of the sector is expected to reach 47,768MW (5.41 times higher than in 2003), ranking second in ASEAN (after Indonesia) and 25th in the world.

It is forecast that up to 2030, demand for electricity will continue to grow at a high level. The electricity sector will need to ensure 265-278 billion kWh by 2020 and around 572-632 billion kWh by 2030.

Thus, the growth rate in the period 2016-20 is 10.3-11.3 per cent per year and the period 2021-30 about 8-8.5 per cent.

Ngo Son Hai, Deputy General Director of EVN, said that the electricity supply in the years 2019-20 could be ensured. However, oil-fired thermal power plants would have to generate approximately 4.4 billion kWh by 2019 and 5.2 billion kWh by 2020.

“During the years 2021-30, the electricity system may not meet demand and power shortages could occur in the south,” said Hai.

Hai said power shortages may increase up to 2025 under scenarios including high load or the volume of water in reservoirs being lower than previous years. Furthermore, the gas projects of Bloc B and Ca Voi Xanh (Blue whale) and several others are being conducted slowly compared with the plan.

"Each of the 1,200MW coal-fired power plants in the south facing slow progress will worsen the shortage by 7.2-7.5 billion kWh per year," said Hai.

"Today, Viet Nam is one of the stars of the emerging markets universe. Its economic growth of 6-7% rivals China"

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2 ... n-economic-miracle/

"When the 20-year Viet Nam War ended in 1975, Viet Nam’s economy was one of the poorest ion the world, and growth under the government’s subsequent five-year central plans was anaemic. By the mid-1980s, per capita GDP was stuck between $200 and $300. But then something changed. In 1986, the government introduced “Đổi Mới”, a series of economic and political reforms, and steered the country to becoming a “socialist-oriented market economy”.

Today, Viet Nam is one of the stars of the emerging markets universe. Its economic growth of 6-7% rivals China, and it exports are worth as much as the total value of its GDP. Anything from Nike sportswear to Samsung smartphones are manufactured in this ASEAN nation. Such is the success of the country, Sheng Lu, an assistant professor at the University of Delaware told the Financial Times that there are few spare workers or production facilities left."

Vietnam's economic growth is still high on trajectory, possibility of financial crisis seems remote currently. Given the severe shortage of electricity, even a financial upset may not dent its demand for electricity much.



9. No financial criminal in the collaboration eg: fraud or scandals in the 25 years journey.

Speechless ............. You really got me with this one.

JHDP is just an Independent Power Producer (IPP) which earns stable income through tariff payments from EVN, a govenment controlled company. Nevertheless, I can't bet my life saying that frauds will not happen to the company in future. Anyway, who can be certain that their investments are fraud free, now and forever ??

JHDP is jointly owned by two companies from two nations, China and Malaysia. CPECC is an internationally recognised company. What is the chances of it collaborating in criminal acts on JHDP which is a vietnamese company ? Will it disgrace china ?

JHDP is a vietnam registered company and is required to prepare financial reports and pay taxes under the jurisdiction of Vietnam. International companies are always closely monitored by the authorities for irregularities and attempts to escape duties and taxes.



10. Assuming no changes in State Bank of Vietnam(Central Bank) policies on funds repatriation, capital control and money outflows. Able to repatriate the earnings back to Msia in the next 25 years without hiccups.

Again, I have extracted the following from my article "Understanding Jaks Hai Duong thermal power plant in Vietnam".

"Vietnam Government guarantee (GGU) guarantees USD currency conversion and right to remit

repayment of principal, interest, etc under financing document
quarterly and annually profit distribution to JPP
repayment of charter capital
any expenses due to contracts goods imported
any expenses due to foreign service contracts
any payment that are due in foreign currency "


Conclusion :  Jaks is well positioned to withstand financial risks.

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发表于 2019-8-18 13:07 | 显示全部楼层
崩盤來着了 不怕咩??

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