Investalks 马来西亚中文投资论坛 - 与你一起通往财务自由之路

 找回密码
 注册

最近看过此主题的会员

查看: 1302|回复: 7

Slow Property Sales: Be careful of Property Stocks

  [复制链接]
x 1785
发表于 2015-6-3 20:43 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
Slow Property Sales: Be careful of Property Stocks

1 Jun 2015


My purpose of writing this article is to help you improve your investment skill.

In my previous article titled ‘An Important Investment Lesson’ I said that you must frequently look at company announcements and when you see any company showing a sudden jump in profit, you should find out more about the company before you rush to buy the share.

After you have verified that the company will surely make more profit in this year than last year, you can buy the share if it is still selling cheaply in terms of P/E ratio.


Moody’s report of slow property sales

Malaysian demand for residential property is set to slow further in 2015, according to a forecast by Moody’s. A report issued by the ratings agency on 5th Feb this year said property demand will be affected by cooling measures introduced in 2013 and weak buyer sentiment.

According to Jacintha Poh, assistant vice-president and analyst at Moody’s, property sales in 2015 should be dampened by anticipated higher mortgage rates, as well as the implementation of the 6% Goods and Services Tax (GST) in April.


Company announcement can be misleading.

Quite often company announcement of quarterly profit can be misleading especially property companies. For example: The recent profit announcement by Hua Yang attracted my attention. Its 4th Quarter EPS was 11 sen and its annual EPS was 41.9 sen and the share is currently selling at about Rm 2.10. Moreover, I was further tempted to buy after I read T A Securities’ buy recommendation as posted on the latest issue of The Edge.

I looked at Hua Yang’s announcement in Bursa and I found out more details of the company. In summary, it has trade and other payables of Rm 142 million, short term borrowings of Rm 79 million and long term borrowing of Rm 192 million.

Share capital Rm 264 million and reserves Rm 202 million=total net assets Rm 466 million.


Hua Yang EGM on 2nd June 2015

The most worrying announcement is that it is calling an EGM on 2nd June 2015, to seek shareholders’ approval to buy a piece of land for Rm 120 million cash. They have to increase their bank borrowing to pay for the land. It looks like the Board of directors does not know that there is already an oversupply of properties in the market and they do not seem to realize that it will take about 7 years to complete the development of the land before they can see any profit.

When you see property companies showing good profit in their latest announcements, it is important to find out if the good result is solely due to the presale of their properties.


Another example: Asian Pac Holdings Bhd or Asiapac showed incredible results for the 1st Quarter 2015 as follows :

property-KYY.png



With profit of RM369 Million and EPS of 37.48 sen this company is a winner!!. How can the revenue of Rm 60 million produce a profit of Rm 369 million?

Should you buy the share selling at 27 sen? The answer should be a resounding “NO” as the higher profit is due to revaluation of assets and not from actual trading operation.  Hence such results are not sustainable and there will not be a repeat in the next quarter.

Be Careful: When you see property companies showing good profit in their latest announcements, it is important to find out if the good result is solely due to revaluation of assets or due to the presale of their properties.

I talk to a few developers recently and almost all of them told me that they have difficulty in selling their condominiums. They cannot completely sell all their condominiums which are currently open for sale. The worst damaging effect is that they have to construct the whole high rise building even if a small percentage is presold.

Unlike developing terrace or detach houses, the developers can hold on to the vacant land if the houses are not presold and holding vacant land will cost less interest charges than holding completed condominiums.

No more opportunities for speculators:

A few years ago until recently when property prices were rising, speculators could easily make profit by putting small down payments and sell their bookings before the construction completion. Now speculators cannot do it because property prices are falling.

Avoid buying property shares in general because their profit growth prospect is not so bright. There might be a few exceptions that I do not know.



http://koonyewyin.com/2015/06/01 ... of-property-stocks/

点评

送上一支花, 谢谢分享。  发表于 2015-6-3 21:11

x 9 我要送花

x 451
发表于 2015-6-3 21:13 | 显示全部楼层
哪里看啊 是asset revalue 还是真的生意
是看revenue 吗

x 0 我要送花

x 794
发表于 2015-6-3 21:18 | 显示全部楼层
放了全部房产股~

x 0 我要送花

x 707
发表于 2015-6-3 21:50 | 显示全部楼层
My2cents.....

Depending what u r buying....

If uem,eco then danger...

If SHL, keladi think quite safe....

x 0 我要送花

x 118
发表于 2015-6-4 14:06 | 显示全部楼层
time to buy in property stock

x 0 我要送花

x 63
发表于 2015-6-4 16:36 | 显示全部楼层
they do not seem to realize that it will take about 7 years to complete the development of the land before they can see any profit.

这句话已经很有问题了

x 0 我要送花

x 143
发表于 2015-8-17 18:20 | 显示全部楼层
慢物業銷售:小心地產股

2015年6月1日


我寫這篇文章的目的是幫助你提高你的技能的投資。

在我以前的文章,題為“一個重要的投資課”我說,你必須經常看公司公告,當你看到一個顯示驟升任何利潤的公司,你應該找出更多有關該公司,你急於買進股票之前。

在驗證了公司必將使更多的利潤,今年比去年,你可以買到的份額,如果它仍然是在P / E比率而言便宜賣。


慢物業銷售穆迪報告

住宅物業需求馬來西亞被設置為在2015年進一步放緩,據預測穆迪。在2月5日發布的評級機構今年的一份報告說,房地產需求將受到冷卻在2013年和弱買家的情緒出台措施。

據Jacintha寶助理副總裁及分析師穆迪,2015年物業銷售應以預期為高抵押貸款利率,還有6%的商品及服務稅(GST)在4月實施被挫傷。


公司公告可能會產生誤導。

經常的季度盈利公司公告可以誤導尤其是物業公司。例如:由華揚最近公佈的利潤吸引了我的注意。其第四季度每股收益為11仙,年EPS分別為41.9仙和共享是目前正在熱銷的約2.10室。此外,我還忍不住買了之後我讀達證券“買入建議,因為貼在邊上的最新問題。

我看著華揚宣布在布爾薩,我發現公司的更多細節。總之,它有貿易及其他應付款項室1.42億的,RM 7900萬短期借款和Rm 1.92億的長期借款。

股本室2.64億和儲備室2.02億=總資產淨值室4.66億。


華陽臨時股東大會於2015年6月2日

最令人擔心的是宣布,它正在呼籲2015年6月2日股東特別大會,以尋求股東批准收購一塊土地室1.2億的現金。他們必須增加他們的銀行借款來支付土地。它看起來像董事會不知道,已經有在市場屬性的供過於求,他們似乎並沒有意識到這將需要大約7年時間完成土地的開發,才可以看到任何利潤。

當你看到物業公司表示他們的最新公告不錯的利潤,它以找出是否良好的效果完全是由於其性質的預售是很重要的。


又如:亞洲小精靈控股有限公司亞太區或呈不可思議的結果第1季2015年,如下所示:





隨著利潤的RM369萬元,每股收益37.48仙這家公司是一個勝利者!。如何才能室60萬元的收入產生利潤室3.69億的?

如果你買27仙股拋售?答案應該是一個響亮的“不”作為更高的利潤是由於資產重估,而不是從實際交易操作。因此,這樣的結果是不可持續的,不會出現在下一季度重演。

要小心:當你看到物業公司表示他們的最新公告不錯的利潤,它以找出是否良好的效果完全是由於資產重估或由於其性質的預售是很重要的。

我跟一些開發商最近,幾乎所有的人都告訴我,他們有賣難的公寓。他們不能完全賣掉所有的公寓這是目前公開發售。最糟糕的破壞性影響是,他們有構造,即使一個很小的比例預售是整個高層建築。

不同於開發露台或分離的房子,開發商可以抓住空置土地,如果房子沒有預售和保持閒置土地將花費更少的利息比持有完成公寓。

對投機者沒有更多的機會:

前幾年,直到最近,當樓價上漲,投機者很容易通過把小的首付盈利和工程竣工前出售自己的預訂。現在,投機者不能這樣做,因為房地產價格正在下降。

避免買地產股一般,因為他們的利潤增長前景並不那麼耀眼。可能有幾個例外,我不知道。

x 0 我要送花

发表回复

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 注册 |

本版积分规则

Google 搜索本站 搜索WWW

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表