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楼主: pc255

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发表于 2010-6-12 17:52 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 欧贝亚 于 2010-6-12 17:55 编辑
我的注意力,仍然放在金融股。
龙吟 发表于 2010-6-12 02:19


借用你這一句,再轉回PC255大大的主題,Especially if you are not in the related industry, how do you build / expand your circle of competence?

我們每個人的專長都不一樣,有的是工程技術出身,有的是金融業的金領,有的是白手興家的企業家。可是來到股市的時候,哇,難道我們要成為全能專家才可以投資?

這個主題其實我自認沒甚麼發言權,因為我覺得至少要在股市有投資過50家不同公司而且都取得不俗的成績,才有發言權。通常能達到這種境界的,投資經驗至少十年以上。

不過,我覺得這個主題可以借鑒我個人投資D&O的經驗,(其實還有其他的公司,比如AIRASIA、FABER、MBMR、MAYBULK等),以上所說的都是我比較沒有瞭解相關行業的投資,但是我在以上的公司總的來說還是有利潤的,而且利潤也不錯,平均來說年盈利應該有超過20%。

其實我得到的利潤主要是因為風險低,然後在止損的保護下,我可以在一些公司獲得翻倍的利潤。就算是自己比較瞭解的公司,其實瞭解度也是好比盲人摸象,可能摸了80%的身體,終究還不是全身。

所以我覺得投資者最重要的是,能夠很客觀及誠實的評估風險,然後在風險低回報高的情況下才投資。Circle of competence只能是長期的不斷努力下使自己更瞭解相關行業風險和回報的能力。一個投資者最應該精通的是很客觀及誠實的評估風險的能力。

以這個角度來看,如果你今天買了KENMARK,因為你真的很客觀及誠實的評估風險後,覺得對於你來說,風險真的很低,那你也是一個合格的投資者。當然,風險真的是那麼低?回報真的是那麼高?這些問題都是無解的,只有依靠時間來證明。

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发表于 2010-6-12 23:42 | 显示全部楼层
我們每個人的專長都不一樣,有的是工程技術出身,有的是金融業的金領,有的是白手興家的企業家。可是來到股市的時候,哇,難道我們要成為全能專家才可以投資?
欧贝亚 发表于 2010-6-12 17:52


就算你在那个行业,又怎样?

难道别人的公司就那么容易的把他们成功的运作方式,或公司的内里真正实情告诉你吗?

没错,我们都不是全能的。不过,如你认真的研究(这里谈的不是纯粹的数据研究)那间公司,你就能在关键的时刻,抓到逆势/顺势买进的契机。

这里,若能使用闲聊法,从那间特定公司的员工,管理级人员套取讯息,加以对证手上掌握的资料,那么更能进一步掌握公司的质数。

所以嘛,就从你觉得最熟悉的行业开始研究,是会事半功倍的。

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-13 13:59 | 显示全部楼层

..
what i share, is not the company. it is a way to understand a company that might be new or out of ur competence circle.
..
tan81 发表于 2010-6-11 23:12


I guess we both (probably) understand why we are sharing it like this. This is to look at each other experience, and look for area to improve ourselves.

It is not company specific. It is like you said it
"a way to understand a company that might be new or out of ur competence circle",
or what I normally mentally thought as an "investment cycle" for me

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-13 14:07 | 显示全部楼层
剛剛開始投資的時候,簡直把數據當成護身符,因為如果沒有了數據,就沒有了信心。茫茫股海,如果不要當消息派,還是要尋找一個信心的支點的。這個支點也可以是技術分析。

然後,投資的信心不在建立於之前的數據後,才算剛剛入門。

欧贝亚 发表于 2010-6-12 01:34


If any new investor were to be reading this, please re-read this in the future.
I, 100% agreed!

Then again, I would have said, the basic should still be 基本分析

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-13 14:32 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pc255 于 2010-6-13 15:23 编辑
人,差不多5年就会有一个新的思想上的改变。
老散一名 发表于 2010-6-12 01:20


A very interesting comment.
Please elaborate more?? Or share your own experience? Or I have to dig your thread?

Thanks.

About myself:
Started with old man advise: buy the share of the richest man, or the biggest company. Hence almost limited to selected blue chip.
PPB, Esso, Shell, Genting. The general theme is these company cannot die one!
Personally treat it like saving.

Chance upon Buffett reading, when like most people here, starting to do investment upon reaching certain age, or a life event trigger etc.
Had been a long term investment mind frame ever since.
At the start - like what 欧贝亚 said, figure was important for me. Quite a bit of ciggy butt mentality.

A few years later, thinking about size is important, size of company, market cap, size of portfolio allocation, balance etc.

A few years later (now), thinking about wonderful company, and trying to limit allocating capital at the wrong time.
Am starting to ignore price movement for a while now. (Was lucky this came at a good time, because I was more or less able to sit through 08/09 without much of portfolio movement, only adding a bit during sept 08.) I would be honest to say that I am nervous, but able to sit it through.

The old Maxis had the most profound effect on me turning to the wonderful company concept. I had some old Maxis from IPO till privatise, it open my eyes to think about investment differently from just looking at figures alone. Because during the IPO, no one mention how wonderful this company is, where as all the broker, ipo prospectus mostly talk about figures, yet what matter in the end is how wonderful this company win and grow market share, brand itself above the peer, and become a superior balance sheet free cash flow company. I think that is what get it the RM15 price then.

----
后记:After all these years, I am still pretty much sticking to selected blue chips..

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-13 14:39 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pc255 于 2010-6-13 15:26 编辑
48# 龙吟

開始現投資龍頭老大,是比較保險的做法。

但是,覺得如果“真的”瞭解相關行業,投資在一個最能在未來局勢獲利的公司,回報率可能會更高。

例子:2006年的DIGI和CIMB

欧贝亚 发表于 2010-6-12 01:41


CIMB and Digi - both transform itself, and the change of appraisal is best description for them. Yet somehow I am blinded by the stigma of these 2 companies before they change themselves.

--
后记:At the time Digi starting changing itself, I had hold Maxis then, the 龍頭老大.
I guess that added another reason why I missed out Digi.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-13 15:13 | 显示全部楼层
要了解一个行业的business model,不是件简单的东西。
因此,一定要从我们最熟系的行业着手。
买股就要买龙头大哥,这点fisher有特别强调。
龙吟 发表于 2010-6-12 01:20

48# 龙吟
開始現投資龍頭老大,是比較保險的做法。
欧贝亚 发表于 2010-6-12 01:41

我們每個人的專長都不一樣,有的是工程技術出身,有的是金融業的金領,有的是白手興家的企業家。可是來到股市的時候,哇,難道我們要成為全能專家才可以投資?
這個主題其實我自認沒甚麼發言權,因為我覺得至少要在股市有投資過50家不同公司而且都取得不俗的成績,才有發言權。通常能達到這種境界的,投資經驗至少十年以上。

所以我覺得投資者最重要的是,能夠很客觀及誠實的評估風險,然後在風險低回報高的情況下才投資。Circle of competence只能是長期的不斷努力下使自己更瞭解相關行業風險和回報的能力。一個投資者最應該精通的是很客觀及誠實的評估風險的能力。
欧贝亚 发表于 2010-6-12 17:52


从我们最熟系的行业着手:
I sometime come across some funny cases: People who work in that industry sometime do not buy share in that industry. 蛋散, if you are reading this would you agree with me?

投資經驗至少十年以上:
I am pretty sure I have more than 10 years experience, but I very much think that I know nothing much..!! So I normally stick with 龍頭老大.

能夠很客觀及誠實的評估風險,然後在風險低回報高的情況下才投資:
I personally think that risk assessment is one of the more difficult part of investment, it come out of nowhere sometime. A recent example, where I spend a lot of time doing a lot of home work is Wilmar. Still risk is where you least expected it. Looking back - I wrote a lot about the strength of the company - did I ever think about the risk? Had I omitted or simplified too many things, oh the cooking oil is needed long term, simple to understand and no risk? The best part of it? I had hold PPB share for > 10 years, it is such an essential core holding in the portfolio, yet I think relatively little about the "other" risk. I only look at the future of edible oil, and thinking about probably higher demand of emerging market economy block countries, and their population growth. And that's it. So where is my risk assessment? The Indonesia case, and the subsequent correction, had bring up something new to me. Is there something else that I should think about?

How do you normally do risk assessment?

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发表于 2010-6-14 00:01 | 显示全部楼层
思考當中。。。現在主要有兩點意見:

1)覺得我和一般長線投資者的最大分別是,我通常因為改變而投資一間公司,改變過了我通常也賣了;所以我估計風險的時候主要只針對我認為會發生的改變。

2)Buffett到底有沒有在最近再買入Goldman Sach和Moody?如果沒有,我覺得他會覺得他的margin of safety有所減少,因為最近爆發的問題是他沒有預計的;如果有,那他覺得他的長期風險沒有因為最近的問題有所提高,而股價大跌是他加碼的好時機。

我個人採取資金分配、止損來減少風險。

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-14 14:40 | 显示全部楼层
Took a trip yesterday with a roof repairman to PJ to assess the damage of a gutter, was told that a total replacement needed.
Will be going for a stainless steel unit. $$$ fly out of wallet..
After I came back, I remember I posted something about buffer fund a employee class property investor need sometime back.
Decided to dig it out, maybe it is useful (hopefully) for people here.

---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
[Property investment and buffer]

Even if an investment property is not leveraged, that is, if you own it out right and clean, as owner, you would still need a fairly sizable buffer to guard against unforeseen events.

Example:
- Landed house roof replacement can cost ~RM10k or more. This can happen overnight, during a thunderstorm / freaky wind storm. A normal insurance (by default only fire) does not cover this. This would wipe your rental for the year, assuming a rm1k ~ 1.5k for a normal landed link house in pj area. Cash needed tomorrow for down payment to your favorite roof repairman. Remember, the house might still be tenanted, and the tenant is screaming!

- 6 months of (higher end rental) condo maintenance, RM500++ * 6 = RM3000, plus outstanding electricity bill, water, MPPJ assessment, lock smith service, clean up (and rubbish removal) after the place was thrashed, can be around RM5000. That is after the tenant stop paying rental, and time taken to evict them. They might drive the fanciest car, but they have no money to pay rent. Those who think that you hold 2 months deposit, let's be frank here, you will lose money, and would need cash on hand to deal with all these.

Tenant default have the nasty habit of happening in a downturn, when times are bad.

There are many more of minor incidence, which will always take you by surprise.

All I can say is, built a very strong buffer, especially if you are leveraged on property investment and wage earner. Business owner might sometime relied on their business cashflow, and there is a better way out for them.

Example and experience based on my 10 years of collecting rents from multiple residential rental properties, as a wage earner.

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发表于 2010-6-14 20:03 | 显示全部楼层
I personally think that risk assessment is one of the more difficult part of investment, it come out of nowhere sometime. A recent example, where I spend a lot of time doing a lot of home work is Wilmar. Still risk is where you least expected it. Looking back - I wrote a lot about the strength of the company - did I ever think about the risk? Had I omitted or simplified too many things, oh the cooking oil is needed long term, simple to understand and no risk?
pc255 发表于 2010-6-13 15:13


Conservative investors sleep well at night.

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发表于 2010-6-14 22:14 | 显示全部楼层
prospectus里的risk disclosure常常有很详细的行业/公司risk..
不够详细出事后公司会被告,所以他们会尽量详细。。说自己公司的风险,弱点。。
可以学到很多。。

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-21 11:09 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pc255 于 2010-6-21 11:12 编辑

Came across this graph recently I think about 2 weeks back from The Edge Financial Daily, and had been talking to my friend about it, and thinking about it. The recent fear factor is not as high as Lehman Panic, but is as high as 911. How interesting.


source: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/10/GLB_VXEQ0610.gif

(Reuters) - For long-term investors, financial volatility is like the weather; the storms are temporary, leaving attractive opportunities when the skies clear.

Market Analysis  |  Personal Finance

The recent resurgence of financial uncertainty -- seen most clearly in a doubling of the Vix .VIX index of Wall St equity volatility in the first three weeks of May alone -- plays havoc with short-term trading and for many leveraged hedge funds.

Stoked by euro sovereign debt fears and sabre-rattling from financial regulators, this latest surge in the so-called "fear gauge" -- a key proxy for global risk appetite at large -- saw emerging market hedge funds indices, for example, drop some 6 percent during May.

But for investors with longer-term horizons and valuation convictions, history suggests this is not the time to head for the bunkers.

Remarkably, data on U.S. money market or cash funds shows that while there was some renewed demand for these safe havens during the past six weeks, net outflows from these boltholes since the start of May was still a hefty $40 billion (27 billion pounds) and the net exit this year in excess of a whopping $350 billion.

"You normally make most of your money when the Vix is high, and not when it's low -- which is exactly what we saw in 2009 when the Vix peaked and rolled over," said Guy Monson, Chief Investment Officer at asset manager Sarasin and Partners.

"Instinctively, it should start to whet the strategist's appetite when the Vix starts to rise."

Monson cited research on equity performance at different levels of the Vix that showed over the past 20 years when the index is above 28.5 percent -- which has been 17 percent of the time -- the underlying S&P 500 equity index has gained an average of 36 percent per annum.

Conversely, when the Vix is at 21.5 percent or below, which is more than half the time, the market has fallen by 4.3 percent per annum.

On Friday, the Vix was still hovering about 30 percent, having peaked at almost 50 percent on May 21 from as low as 16 percent a month earlier.

PICKING THE TIME

Of course, to see high volatility as a time to buy now requires a firm belief that underlying fundamental valuations remain sound and that the cause of the volatility is temporary and not structural.

But many analysts feel that volatility spiked this time around in large part because markets are finding it difficult to price the vagaries of political decision making, which are dominating the resolution of the euro crisis and the global regulatory backlash to the credit crunch.

Markets are typically adept at discounting economic and earnings trends but are less confident second-guessing the risk of random political actions like Germany's recent unilateral naked short-selling ban or Australia's mining tax plan.

"Big government is back and the market is having difficulty accurately pricing political risk -- it's really not had to do it for 20 years. It's broadly been a Thatcherite, Reaganomic laissez-faire environment for that time," said Monson.

"But for the most part, politicians are probably rational operators and if they are operating within a G20 framework they are probably restrained for big one-off events," he added.

The fundamental backdrop, meantime, throws up compelling stories for European blue chips with global exposure.

The euro's decline, for example, should prove a boost for the world's second-biggest exporter Germany while dividends for the EuroStoxx50 yield in excess of 100 basis points over benchmark euro government bonds.

HEDGING VOL

Some investors, especially managers of so-called funds of funds, reckon one way to see through the storm is to actively use volatility to hedge an underlying bullish portfolio.

After buying in March into BNP Paribas's Vol Edge fund, which is indexed to the forward implied volatility of the Eurostoxx50, the multimanager team at F&C Investments said it then exited the position in mid May.

"We began 2010 with the view that this was going to be a recovery year and as such wanted to be long risk assets. We also believed there would be periods during the year when risk aversion would rise dramatically as the markets climbed the "wall of worry", said F&C fund manager Paul Carne.

BNP Vol Edge made returns in excess of 50 percent during this period, shielding the portfolios from the full impact of losses elsewhere.

"We are keeping our mind open to put this trade on again in the future should volatility hit our target levels once again, depending on the market environment," Carne said.

Others see this sort of hedging as simply too expensive.

Kees Verbaas, executive director of emerging markets at Hermes, which manages $3 billion in emerging market equities, mainly for British pension funds BT and Royal Mail, said there is a certain amount of country rotation during spikes in the Vix but the positive longer-term view has to be the main guide.

"Month-to-month performance during periods of high volatility can make you look like a star or an idiot," said Verbaas, who added his funds long-term view was two or three years. "But if you have a client who will tolerate that focus on the long term them it saves a lot of costs."

source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLNE65D00Y20100614

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-21 11:14 | 显示全部楼层
72# pc255

And VIX had been trending down since mid May 2010. Now, "NO more FEAR"..

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发表于 2010-6-22 01:00 | 显示全部楼层
自己评估了风险之后,买进自己认为有机会赚钱的公司。
其他的数据知道后就把他忘到干干净净,这就是做生意的道理。

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发表于 2010-6-23 18:30 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 titep_shin 于 2010-6-23 18:35 编辑

Pc255兄
我现在cash60:share 40
FnN是占我share portfolio的一半

why you so good got little birdie  message you bout FnN? i oso want birdie can bo

for market like now , my 1st choice company i can comfortably own(not for short term) is still FnN
tht's why i keep it and still thinking of buying more

i have been waiting to add more around rm11.20-40 if it fall to tht price again
but it is flying high and high and high

although FnN is building new plant,but i think a special dividen is still unavoidable since he is selling off his glass plant and sitting on such a hugh pile of cash
so i m realy looking forward for ds dividen ( i expect this year dividen will be round rm0.80,bcoz from disposing can get bout rm0.60 net cash, and with 60% pay out = rm0.3-0.4, add on with last financial year rm0.5,so rm0.80-rm1), 2gether with its ever growing net profit until next plant start working

talking bout the risk
share price wise i think low side is limited but it's upside potential is realy huge
this is my humble opinion

plz shoot me 2 learn 2gether :p

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-24 00:22 | 显示全部楼层
75# titep_shin

1st time people ask me to shoot. I wont shoot, will give you my 2 sens worth instead.

F&N: Frankly between what is written by analyst etc, I am not entirely looking at the special dividend that carefully. I mean, if F&N declare, so be it, if not that is ok too provided they make good use of it. Rather, I am thinking about what the next thing the management would do. During a transition period between CEO, sometimes a lot of things got stuck. Indecision etc. If the competitor is moving, F&N better keep looking at all these happening around them carefully. I do try to watch out for these news.

BTW, this is another example of what the newspaper write (figure - speculate on the special dividend etc), and what is not written (the company aspect of how the future will be, post CEO, post coke), and what is not written is more important than the figure. Do read up Mr Tan interview with the edge (I posted in F&N thread), his comment will give you certain idea what will happen to the company. Who knows, an announcement will be next for some M&A activity.

Happy investing!
--
I want 100plus return!

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发表于 2010-6-24 00:34 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 titep_shin 于 2010-6-24 00:36 编辑

thanks for shooting!!

you are rite,bro
i m oso ok if no special dividen provided FnN mz utilized those money wisely....
another MnA is not bad though
i had 2 admit i look 2 short and you look longer

Mr.Tan had been CEO for nearly 10 years and he guided FnN for a great 10 years
new CEO had been in FnN so hope the transition period is smoothly
and with similiar style of management,which is always make best decision for shareholder

competition is stiff....especially in beverage sector i guess
i visited cambodia and vietnam last week
and to me, there is still huge potential, and hoping FnN can succesfuly tap into those country ( which i believe he will after new plant started)
hopefully i still got chance to accumulate him in near future

if we got chance meet 1 day, i treat u 100+!!

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发表于 2010-6-25 12:18 | 显示全部楼层
73# pc255

Still early days. I don't think the fear has subsided, in fact the fear has never really started, to me it is still at dismissal stage

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-27 23:25 | 显示全部楼层
78# 欧贝亚

Thank you for pointing that out to me. I had been wondering about if something was amiss. When I was looking at VIX, I thought it is like a little too easy, felt a little deceiving, like something lurking somewhere ready to spike up the fear again. Only time will tell..

--
The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs.
In the long run we are all dead.
- John Maynard Keynes

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发表于 2010-6-28 23:32 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 龙吟 于 2010-6-29 00:16 编辑
73# pc255

Still early days. I don't think the fear has subsided, in fact the fear has never really started, to me it is still at dismissal stage

http://static.safehaven.com/authors/du_plessis/ ...
欧贝亚 发表于 2010-6-25 12:18


haha, it is an interesting diagram to potray the behaviours of the investors.....

Anyhow, those who are good or expert in teaching behavioural sciences may end up losing money in the share market....wat's a joke!?? Simular case appllies to those who are accountants still cant avoid losing money despite of all the "figures" they have in their hands!

Some of you may think that charting is somethg minor, but u will never noe how much info u can dig out from the movements of a chart.......

To those who ignore it, i really dun mind.....

Ppl learn how to use knowledge to wipe up ignorance, but not the other way round.

ha!!

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