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发表于 2010-6-11 23:43 | 显示全部楼层
以前我写部落格的舊文章,可以當學習新行業的反面教材。

Past Mistakes - D&O (28 Feb to 2006 16 Jun 2006)

First of all, thank you for those who voted in the poll. It is evident from the poll that the public opinion is fairly divided. With 44% recommending a SELL, 38% recommending a HOLD and 13% opined that I should buy more. One person (6%) indicated that I should not even buy in the first place.

I have tried my best to explained the reason I bought into D&O in Stock Portfolio @ 9 Jun 2006. However, as D&O fell below 0.48 on last Friday, I sold it off under the stop-loss measure.

However, in my view the fundamental of D&O is good, and it is a stock worth investing in. But I definitely made some mistakes in my "experience" with D&O, so what went wrong?

On hindsight, I think the mistake was made at the purchase, but rather than being a "poor" investment decision based on fundamental analysis, it should be a case of "poor" investment decision based on timing. When I buy D&O, OSK has just released a few research reports trumpeting D&O. S&P has a Strong Buy recommendation on D&O as well. Within weeks the price shot up from RM 0.48~0.50 to RM 0.58, a gain of 16%. D&O has just announced that they are going to change the listing status to main board. RFID equipments are in the factory as well. A series of good news flow had pumped up the share price, which made my entry into D&O at a price that offers little margin of safety.

Yes, I now believe that it is because of the poor margin of safety that leads to my inevitable loss in D&O. I have no idea when is the best time to buy a stock, as I do not practise technical analysis in stock purchase. I relied on margin of safety as a timing alternative, in the case of D&O, I would not have bought it at RM 0.57 as the trailing PER was 17, and growth rate for FY 2006 is expected to be about 22%. This will translate to a PEG of 0.77.

I normally used two type of margin of safety. One is in terms of value, in which I follow the teaching of Benjamin Graham. In D&O case, as it is a growth company, though it has a net current asset that can pay off the non-current liabilities, the P/NTA of 3 means that there is NO margin of safety based on the principle of Benjamin Graham. The second margin of safety that I used is the PEG ratio popularised by Peter Lynch. I treat it as a margin of safety as one would have a clear idea how the growth of the company will influence the PER of the company. To me if the company is growing at a fast pace, PER will drop as the business performance of the company improves, then better margin of safety will be provided under the principle of Benjamin Graham. I normally look for a PEG that is as low as possible below 1, and in D&O case the PEG of 0.77 is insufficient from hindsight. Thus I did not get a bargain for D&O at the time of purchase, I merely got a reasonable investment.

The second mistake I made, is to underestimate the cyclical nature of technology sector and the intense competition in the industry. In the case of cyclical industry, it is always better to go for the industry leader, as they usually have better pricing power compared with peers. In Bursa Malaysia, there are very few listed industry leader, and in the case of technology sector, the fewer industry leaders do not fulfill the margin of safety principles.

Lesson:
1) Always insist in a better margin of safety, until it becomes a true bargain.
2) Beware of cyclical industry, it is very easy to underestimate the competition in the industry.

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x 9
发表于 2010-6-11 23:52 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 欧贝亚 于 2010-6-12 00:24 编辑

另一篇舊文章,裡頭有和一間新公司交流的資料,海鷗的答覆不知道丟那裡了:

Hai-O had announced the 4th quarter result on 26 June 2006. At first glance, the 4th Quarter EPS of 3.69 and an increase of dividend from 6 sen in the last financial year to 8 sen now are very encouraging. My initial estimation for the 4th Quarter EPS is only 1.37sen with projected revenue of 33.9 Million. Historically Hai-O was usually in the red for the 4th Quarter.

It seems that Hai-O is very active in Yunan province of China recently. It is lobbying for the worldwide distributorship of “Pu Er” Chinese tea. Pu Er is the tea that has various health benefits, and even beginner of tea arts can prepare it with minimal training. Another characteristics of Pu Er is the “aging” properties similar to that of good wine, so there are “investment grade” Pu Er. It definitely has an international appeal.

However, when I look at the cashflow statement of Hai-O, it is apparent that most of the cash generated from the operation has been used up in the investing activities. It was simply stated as “other investment” and “quoted investment”. Anyone who read this cashflow statement will definitely be in the dark of what exactly the company invested in. I have extracted the relevant data from the balance sheet and cashflow statement:


It is evident from the above table that the figure for “investment” fluctuated from quarter to quarter. I am even more puzzled when the “other investment” of the balance sheet actually shrunk to less than RM 6 million. As a small investor, I feel that I need some clarification on the matter, thus I send the following email to info@hai-o.com.my today:

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

To the investor relation manager,

My Name is XXX, and I am a small investor in your company, and I have a blog。 Recently, I went through the last four quarterly financial results of your company, and found that the company has a substantial investment classified under “Other Investment”. I am a bit confused by the fluctuation of this investment over the period. Please refer to the table below:

(Table omitted)

There are a few issues of which I would really appreciate your kind feedback:

1) What is the nature of this investment?
2) Why is it Quoted Investment in Q3, and in other quarters it is Other Investment?
3) Is this investment reflected in the Balance Sheet?
4) If it is, why is the “Other Investment” in the Balance Sheet shrunk from 14,898 to 5,883 in the 3rd Quarter?

I wish to thank you for taking your time to read through my email, and I look forward to your reply in which I may share with my blog readers, with your kind permission. Finally, I wish to commend your management for carving out such a unique competitive edge in becoming the worldwide distributor of quality Chinese health products. I believe you have much to offer in terms of branding, legal/regulation compliance, multilingual ability etc. Nonetheless, recently our Malaysian Government has launched an initiative to promote Malaysia as a Halal Food Hub. Does Hai-O have any plan to become a gateway of Chinese health products to the Islamic market?

Once again, thank you for allowing small investors like me to have a chance in owning a piece of a booming international business.

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发表于 2010-6-12 00:56 | 显示全部楼层
以前我写部落格的舊文章,可以當學習新行業的反面教材。

Past Mistakes - D&O (28 Feb to 2006 16 Jun 2006)

First of all, thank you for those who voted in the poll. It is evident from the poll that th ...
欧贝亚 发表于 2010-6-11 23:43


结论:你不了解那个行业。

对不?

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x 1
发表于 2010-6-12 00:59 | 显示全部楼层
到底是先有数据,才有基本,还是先有基本,才有数据呢?

老鼠老鼠,傻傻分不清楚。

投资不是公式数学,是艺术。

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x 9
发表于 2010-6-12 01:00 | 显示全部楼层
43# 龙吟

是的,我不了解这个行业。

其实找资料的时候,问过Agilent里头做LED的朋友,他们也是代理D&O的产品的。

找了这么多资料,最终还不是我们自己的生意,所以margin of safety永远都重要,至少在不会亏多的时候才敢出手。

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发表于 2010-6-12 01:03 | 显示全部楼层
44# 龙吟

现在看回去,当初的投资当然是太傻太天真。人都是有一个成长的过程的。

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x 50
发表于 2010-6-12 01:20 | 显示全部楼层
44# 龙吟

现在看回去,当初的投资当然是太傻太天真。人都是有一个成长的过程的。
欧贝亚 发表于 2010-6-12 01:03

人,差不多5年就会有一个新的思想上的改变。

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发表于 2010-6-12 01:20 | 显示全部楼层
43# 龙吟

是的,我不了解这个行业。

其实找资料的时候,问过Agilent里头做LED的朋友,他们也是代理D&O的产品的。

找了这么多资料,最终还不是我们自己的生意,所以margin of safety永远都重要,至少在不会 ...
欧贝亚 发表于 2010-6-12 01:00


要了解一个行业的business model,不是件简单的东西。

因此,一定要从我们最熟系的行业着手。

买股就要买龙头大哥,这点fisher有特别强调。

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发表于 2010-6-12 01:22 | 显示全部楼层
人,差不多5年就会有一个新的思想上的改变。
老散一名 发表于 2010-6-12 01:20


怎么我还是停留在从前的?

那你呢?

有什么好的改变?

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发表于 2010-6-12 01:24 | 显示全部楼层
44# 龙吟

现在看回去,当初的投资当然是太傻太天真。人都是有一个成长的过程的。
欧贝亚 发表于 2010-6-12 01:03


这点,我是有共鸣的。

不过,重点在不在于,你是否蜕变了。

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x 50
发表于 2010-6-12 01:34 | 显示全部楼层
怎么我还是停留在从前的?

那你呢?

有什么好的改变?
龙吟 发表于 2010-6-12 01:22

我改变了什么,我都已经忘记了。

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x 9
发表于 2010-6-12 01:34 | 显示全部楼层
剛剛開始投資的時候,簡直把數據當成護身符,因為如果沒有了數據,就沒有了信心。茫茫股海,如果不要當消息派,還是要尋找一個信心的支點的。這個支點也可以是技術分析。

然後,投資的信心不在建立於之前的數據後,才算剛剛入門。

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x 45
发表于 2010-6-12 01:37 | 显示全部楼层
52# 欧贝亚

欧兄的分享,果然切到肉。
想请教欧兄,可以评论一下,当你买入 D& O 和买入 tan chong 的时候,
最大的分别是什么? 我不是指公司的分别。
我想知道你在操作或选股的时候,所考虑的方式,有什么分别?

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x 9
发表于 2010-6-12 01:41 | 显示全部楼层
48# 龙吟

開始現投資龍頭老大,是比較保險的做法。

但是,覺得如果“真的”瞭解相關行業,投資在一個最能在未來局勢獲利的公司,回報率可能會更高。

例子:2006年的DIGI和CIMB

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发表于 2010-6-12 01:45 | 显示全部楼层
我改变了什么,我都已经忘记了。
老散一名 发表于 2010-6-12 01:34


这就是人生的最高境界。

我读,我会,然后我忘了。

毕竟没有几个人会去记得1+1是等于2的。

老散,你最一级棒。

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发表于 2010-6-12 01:45 | 显示全部楼层
剛剛開始投資的時候,簡直把數據當成護身符,因為如果沒有了數據,就沒有了信心。茫茫股海,如果不要當消息派,還是要尋找一個信心的支點的。這個支點也可以是技術分析。

然後,投資的信心不在建立於之前的數據後 ...
欧贝亚 发表于 2010-6-12 01:34

我也是没有了數據,也是沒有了信心。
到时有了數據,有了信心,又如何。
數據,信心并不是就是成功,因为这些东西是会变的。
主要是在这个过程中我们也要会变。

要去到目的地是要经过无限次的调整才能达到的。

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x 9
发表于 2010-6-12 02:02 | 显示全部楼层
53# tan81

1)我不會再買低流通量的股票,除非我肯100%失去相關投資,而這樣的投資能夠帶來超過400%的盈利。D&O是MESDAQ股,流通量超低。
2)買沒有消費者品牌的公司,PE要更低。有消費者品牌的,比如陳唱,而PE又低,公司盈利可以擴張3倍而沒瓶頸,基金又會投資的,基本上股價都會升回的。
3)我不會買一個不能掌握自己的市場能力的公司。比如D&O,當時的銷售都指望Agilent。
4)如果沒有人除了自己會買這間公司,那還是別買了。

我走的路,會越來越像逆風大大;當然,路還是自己走出來的。

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发表于 2010-6-12 02:06 | 显示全部楼层
48# 龙吟

開始現投資龍頭老大,是比較保險的做法。

但是,覺得如果“真的”瞭解相關行業,投資在一個最能在未來局勢獲利的公司,回報率可能會更高。

例子:2006年的DIGI和CIMB
欧贝亚 发表于 2010-6-12 01:41




好股,分成两种。一种是dividend stock。 一种是growth stock.

龙头老大可能是dividend stock,但这不代表它不能grow progressively.

因此,对你来说投資龍頭老大,可能是比較保險的做法,而对我来说,就是保守兼带攻势的股。

龙头老大,不一定只有一个。

fisher说过,前一二三的龙头股,只要它们符合十五条件,都能考虑拥有。。。。

对我来说,如龙头股是好股,那我们必须拥有它!

如龙头二三股是growth stock,那更不应该错过!

哈!

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发表于 2010-6-12 02:10 | 显示全部楼层
58# 龙吟

如果我的Nestle 会好像你的CIMB 这样,就好了。 
谢谢欧兄的分享。

记得很久以前看过你说,也许以后会走上买入鸟巢的这条路。
现在看来,是不会和你同路的。 

不过,还是会祝福你继续赚大钱,常胜下去。
投资,真的好像我的师傅说的一样,是很个人的。

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发表于 2010-6-12 02:19 | 显示全部楼层
58# 龙吟

如果我的Nestle 会好像你的CIMB 这样,就好了。 
谢谢欧兄的分享。

记得很久以前看过你说,也许以后会走上买入鸟巢的这条路。
现在看来,是不会和你同路的。 

不过, ...
tan81 发表于 2010-6-12 02:10


不对,不对,可能是同路的,只不过是各自修行而已。

当研究不够深入,再加上把长期投资的理念,用在错的股,你失去的,就不只是金钱而已,最重要的是。。。。。

时间!

nestle也是龙头股哦。。。。我没研究,不敢说些什么。

我的注意力,仍然放在金融股。

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