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楼主: pc255

[谢绝灌水] pc255专区

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x 45
发表于 2010-6-11 17:45 | 显示全部楼层
i do remember how secondbrother spot the change on CIMB and he started to buy in.
yet, he regret to sold it too early, but he still won big.
he bought again after that.

sorry, fren, can't find the post.

here has some of he old saying to share with u
http://tan81.com/?p=191

and buy on certainty is another method that enlighten my view.
although i have spent so long to understand this and just apply it recently on suncity.
he has deep knowledge in investment.
http://2ndbrother2.blogspot.com/2009/09/blog-post_11.html

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x 45
发表于 2010-6-11 18:50 | 显示全部楼层
refer to ur 19 and 20 posts, i started to think about this since 2 years ago.
maybe u have read this before,

http://tan81.com/?p=168

then, i started to implement it.
till today, i only put this action in two company,nestle and vitrox.
nestle, i share enough already. and i still think nestle is in my 能力圈。
Vitrox is totally not.

http://tan81.com/?p=47

i visited them long ago, before i am thinking to buy share by qualitative analysis.
but this visiting experience has gave me such an big impact in my investment.

to be continued....

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x 45
发表于 2010-6-11 19:07 | 显示全部楼层
in order to reduce my risk, i buy them with 分批买进
not just because of price, it is to take time to evaluate their quality.

in that visiting, director yeoh has told me the darkness of mesdaq.
they planned to upgrade themselves to main board asap.
in 2009 nov, they transfered to main board. so, i buy more that time.

they said the company growth will depend on AOI in future.
but in year 2008 and 2009, the sales has not turn up. so, i am not buying on this,
as they lost the quality in products growth.

but 2009, they able to earn Agilent AOI contract after Agilent quit the AOI biz.
Agilent client lists are about 2000. i made my buy again as they able to achieve another milestone.

the directors did mention, not using company cash to buy new cars.i check their directors fees every year. i set a line. for executive director, earning average 10K to 20K per month, is reasonable. as long as they maintain, i think the board intregrity can remain.

cash portion. from 2008 till 2010, electronics company has face a bad challenge and recover fast. this gives me a baseline to evaluate the quality of management. they able to maintain cashflow / cash portion for the company which impressed me a lots. compare to others players in the same industry, the diffrence in cash management, it is huge.

annual reports also give me a compare. i do not  like the annual report that hard to understand, especially just give a simple explanation on company or simple statement from MD. they management should know that annual report only printed out a year, and it is only chance for most of the shareholders to understand how is the company doing in last year.vitrox can be a case study. i see improvement in its annual report year by year. of coz, do not take all the points in the report. has to wait and prove the points.

reading news or research reports can be helpful too. watch the management comments and their planning. check it when time comes. do they carried out the plan and make it happens? or they keep on changing their plan?

last thing to clarify here, i am sorry if somebody found that i am hard sell vitrox here.
vitrox also has a lots of problem that i dun understand yet. u may read the 股票专区,if u wan to know more. i just share what i did in the past for how to buy in a company that i dun understand at all in the beginning.

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x 1
发表于 2010-6-11 19:24 | 显示全部楼层
in order to reduce my risk, i buy them with 分批买进
not just because of price, it is to take time to evaluate their quality.

in that visiting, director yeoh has told me the darkness of mesdaq.
t ...
tan81 发表于 2010-6-11 19:07


哈哈!

这股该不会是你的主力吧?

看了你的文章,觉得你也太容易相信那个老板了吧。

对于agilent的事件,你知道多少?

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x 45
发表于 2010-6-11 19:26 | 显示全部楼层
24# 龙吟

不知道很多。
看过一份Bursa 的文告和KenangA 的research  Report 而已。
有东西可以分享吗?

谢谢。

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x 1
发表于 2010-6-11 19:30 | 显示全部楼层
24# 龙吟

不知道很多。
看过一份Bursa 的文告和KenangA 的research  Report 而已。
有东西可以分享吗?

谢谢。
tan81 发表于 2010-6-11 19:26


哦。pening!

老tan,可否想过为何agilent把它卖出去吗?

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x 45
发表于 2010-6-11 19:31 | 显示全部楼层
26# 龙吟

当然想过, 生意不好做,利润不高,所以老大不要做了。

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x 1
发表于 2010-6-11 19:41 | 显示全部楼层
26# 龙吟

当然想过, 生意不好做,利润不高,所以老大不要做了。
tan81 发表于 2010-6-11 19:31


那你又知不知道为何vitrxx去拿来做吗?

soli啦,我不是lcly,只是要知道你知道多少。

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x 45
发表于 2010-6-11 19:49 | 显示全部楼层
28# 龙吟

没有关系。
其实,我真的不知道很多。
根据文告的解释,他们是为了客户的 Contact List。
因为 AOI 的市场很小,很少使用者。相信不容易卖入这个市场。
以前 生意佬在 Cari 的分析就很好,有谈到这个机器不容易行销的问题。

我认为 V 拿合约的原因,基本上是变相的争取顾客。
当然,是否有利可图,还是要时间来印证。
这些问题,也是我这个月要了解的重点之一。

目前,从公布的资料,真的看不到很多东西。

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x 1
发表于 2010-6-11 19:54 | 显示全部楼层
28# 龙吟

没有关系。
其实,我真的不知道很多。
根据文告的解释,他们是为了客户的 Contact List。
因为 AOI 的市场很小,很少使用者。相信不容易卖入这个市场。
以前 生意佬在 Cari 的分析就很好,有谈到这 ...
tan81 发表于 2010-6-11 19:49


那你去做research,然后post 上来,我们再谈。

这是你的vitrox,你要看得紧些。

哈!

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x 45
发表于 2010-6-11 20:49 | 显示全部楼层
30# 龙吟

一定,一定。没有问题。
钱,是我的,当然要紧张。
有了任何资料,会继续分享。


顺便问一句,Pc255 兄,你的专区注明不可以灌水。
你认为我和龙吟的交流属于Case Study 的一部分吗?
需要我把这些帖子都删除吗?

我尊重你的意见。
再一次说声抱歉。

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x 1
发表于 2010-6-11 20:51 | 显示全部楼层
30# 龙吟

一定,一定。没有问题。
钱,是我的,当然要紧张。
有了任何资料,会继续分享。


顺便问一句,Pc255 兄,你的专区注明不可以灌水。
你认为我和龙吟的交流属于Case Study 的一部分吗?
需要我把 ...
tan81 发表于 2010-6-11 20:49


pls go ahead, tan 81.

delete it.

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x 5
 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-11 21:06 | 显示全部楼层
32# 龙吟

I would welcome discussion particular to investment, and case study exchange like this.
This is reasonable for me.

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x 1
发表于 2010-6-11 21:11 | 显示全部楼层
Just happen to see 2nd brother discussion on his blog. Allowed me to copy a little bit over:

"大把人认为价值投资重点是 margin of safety,然而它的中心点却是质量 (qualitative)。它包括如下:-
1. 管 ...
pc255 发表于 2010-6-11 16:57


change of appraisal.......tat is the key word.

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x 1
发表于 2010-6-11 21:23 | 显示全部楼层
i do remember how secondbrother spot the change on CIMB and he started to buy in.
yet, he regret to sold it too early, but he still won big.
he bought again after that.

sorry, fren, can't find t ...
tan81 发表于 2010-6-11 17:45


为何你就不研究二哥所说的好公司呢?

哈!

看好好二哥的points,那些points在不同的行业,、有着不同的evaluation方法。

而那,却是很关键的。

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x 5
 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-11 21:53 | 显示全部楼层
23# tan81

Thank you for sharing your case study.
For certain reason, I would generally eliminate share / stock in M'sia smaller than certain size.
The size depends, but generally market cap would be a guide.
I typically look at top30 market cap plus a select few. Size of revenue would be another clue for me. Like F&N is not a top30 cap.

Case example personally: Uchitech.
Portfolio bought the share some time after the IPO. I cannot remember which year now, small position. Never sold it since. After bonus issues, and stuff, would have been more decent return if the current price was RM3.x. However the market forces turn against them, now Rm1.x. Lots of bigger cap share that were well run bounce back to their previous level. But not Uchitec.

Company is well run, however in a difficult to predict industry. (In fact all semicond industry can be quite hard to predict - ask 蛋散 if he have company order visibility more than 2 years? Or what the future sales looks like 3 ~ 5 years down the road. I knew a little bit as my wife used to work in semicond). When a company not big enough, especially in electronic industry can be tricky. Too much of unknown + uncertainty. At least for me.

Do I lose money on Uchitec? Technically not really. Dividend is generous, price level still above cost. I guess I am a little lucky, and the company is very well run and able. And reason for me investing in this? I visited their company before, and a well like small cap growth stock then! I had hold this company for many years (>7 years). I normally have trouble selling share. I recently sold this share, as the weighting to portfolio is getting too small, and not worth the trouble keeping this small company under study. Is it a superior investment? Not really too.

So, please pardon me for not looking into Vitrox. Some say small are beautiful, for me small is sometime risky.
龙吟 had mentioned a few times I think on other thread as well as this to be caution. I concur with his view.

However I do share your confidence and enthusiasm on Nestle, as it is part of my portfolio.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-11 21:54 | 显示全部楼层
change of appraisal.......tat is the key word.
龙吟 发表于 2010-6-11 21:11


And that was the word I was looking for. Thank you!

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x 1
发表于 2010-6-11 22:04 | 显示全部楼层
And that was the word I was looking for. Thank you!
pc255 发表于 2010-6-11 21:54


Haha, once u are able to  detect the change of appraisal, then u hit the jackpot!

Before you can possess this skill, u got to understand the structure of business......

Therefore, my super seniors recomends that we shall start with those companies that we are most familiar with.

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发表于 2010-6-11 22:11 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 龙吟 于 2010-6-11 22:31 编辑
And that was the word I was looking for. Thank you!
pc255 发表于 2010-6-11 21:54


PE is neither mathematical nor statistical measurement..........PE is an art.

The change of appraisal will directly contribute to the grow of PE.

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x 45
发表于 2010-6-11 23:12 | 显示全部楼层
36# pc255

thanks for ur sharing. i will read it after the 1st match finished.

i think need to do some clarify here.

what i share, is not the company. it is a way to understand a company that might be new or out of ur competence circle.

if market capital is one of ur requirement, watch the company till it grow to this size, u only start to buy,
or buy in a company already as this size,just like F and N.

i think my watching list or method can work on different company.

my 2 cents thought here.

for vitrox, i agree with u and 龙吟。
it is less than 20% of my nestle portfolio.
i will only increase its portion if it is keep breaking my benchmark.

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