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[谢绝灌水] pc255专区

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发表于 2010-6-7 23:51 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 tabibho 于 2012-8-2 20:47 编辑


[4065 PPB]
長期年均回酬在15% 以上嗎?

PPB 公司变型了...

Wilmar 2Q09 comment:
PPB Q209 comment:
老人股 / 賣壓没有了!

Comment on MSM / TWS sale:
Capex: Flour mill/ Sugar Refinery Capex discussion, also CSR
Flour / Sugar profitability / Relationship with hedging (future contract)

Wilmar 3Q09
Wilmar moat / integrated model?
PPB Q309:
PPB Special dividend 2010 comment:


Edible oil:
Bursa Palm and Lauric Oils Conference & Exhibition (collection of interesting comments)

Wilmar 4Q09 comment:
PPB 4Q09:

PPB vs Wilmar: Pros / Cons:
PPB holding of Wilmar - possible dilution?

PPB market cap:

Wilmar 1Q10:

Sharp comments on PPB AGM 2010:

Comments on Wilmar's Sucrogen purchase

[3689 F&N]
- vs Nestle size and revenue:
M&A / Non organic growth:
Coke threat:
New Asian drink at SG supermarket:
F&N - RM15有所思 - Some thought about RM15 F&N on 23 July 2010
Mr Tan Ang Meng (F&N Bhd ex-CEO 2000 ~ 2010) presentation investor day 14 Aug 2010 (Q&A)

[1899 BKAWAN]
vs KLK
- Marry BKawan as long term partner

[5108 ICap]
Comments on AGM2009: TTB and his minor portfolio mistake
Focus portfolio comment:
Icap underperform market on price Y08 & Y09
Price to NAV - premuim or discount?
Icap NAV to KLCI comparison
Icap - AGM questions on new board of director
Icap 300+ shareholder (who own >100,000 share) can decide company direction 值得吗? (refer to publication of Icap)

[6012 Maxis]
Comment on IPO

United Plantation: Comment on Q12010

Nestle: Stronger RM on export base cost - comment

Astro: Privatisation

TWS: Comment on Q12010

Tanjong - buying during Lehman panic

6033, 5681 Petronas Group / Gas / Dagangan


参与人数 1威望 +5 收起 理由
checkmate + 5 感谢pc255的分享


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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-7 23:52 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pc255 于 2010-9-20 22:32 编辑

[Investment and related topics / off-topics]

Comment on 最好的生意 : on 4D in Msia ... mp;page=1#pid145853

Return of selected Msia equity vs Gold last 5 years to mid-2010: ... mp;page=1#pid144594

高股息股有哪些?Comment on high dividend company (not necessary high yield) blue chip company ... amp;page=5#pid44618

Comment on retail investor and high dividend company (not necessary high yield) blue chip company ... amp;page=1#pid44837

AMANAH SAHAM MALAYSIA (ASM) - very good risk reward? ... mp;page=1#pid113540

打工一族要达到财务自由: ... p;page=20#pid142780
理财的书: ... mp;page=1#pid183556

Comment on size of capital to employee class investor ... p;page=19#pid141547

Comment on capital size / student: ... amp;page=2#pid41553 ... amp;page=2#pid41660

Comment on growth and value destroying ... mp;page=1#pid142251

你跑赢大市吗?KLCI 2009 +45.17%, 2008 -39.33% ... amp;extra=page%3D11

Investment criteria comment: ... amp;page=1#pid81132

Some smart-ass comment: ... mp;page=13#pid92010

讲讲下,发发下 Nestle RM50 白日梦.. ... ;page=375#pid186938 ... ;page=376#pid187672

CDS Account 继承人: ... amp;page=1#pid24739 ... amp;page=1#pid24928 ... amp;page=1#pid28473

Millionaire next (cyber) door & off topic on education ... amp;page=3#pid42030

产业投资:capital gains vs cash flow 你注重那个? ... amp;page=1#pid29682

[Plantation related comments]
Palm based edible oil - world market share growth and safe investment for long term? ... p;page=16#pid167340 ... p;page=21#pid194754

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-7 23:54 | 显示全部楼层
2# pc255

Been writing a bit here.. I did not realised that it was that much.
Wifey complain that she cant read some of the stuff I posted,
as it is all over the place, and she dunno where,
so I created this place to consolidate some of my personal stuff for her to read.

Why post in English? 我打字死北慢

Thanks dear!

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-8 00:18 | 显示全部楼层
Difference between FBMKLCI-EA (0820EA) ETF / ICAP:
To my understanding of the FBMKLCI-EA (0820EA) ETF:
- It is open ended.
- If more people buying it, and no existing shareholder is selling it - the fund manager will buy the equivalent share of the KLCI index component, and create more unit to sell to you.
- If more people is selling it, and not buyer is on hand, the fund manager will buy it back from you, and might consider keeping some unit to sell to the next buyer, or "take away / cancel / destroy" the share by selling the underlying KLCI index component share.
- The price you buy and sell is equal (or near) to the underlying NAV.

Based on my limited understanding, this is open-ended. The fund manager or its agent will double as market maker, but in essence this fund can grow bigger by have more people holding it, not necessary because the asset is growing.

- You can only buy / sell it on the market from / to other seller / buyer, if any.
- The fund manager will not buy from you.
- ICAP is managed by Capital Dynamic, who also manage fund from discretionary account (private client).
- The fund manager might buy from you on behalf of other client they have.
- The price you buy or sell might NOT correspond to the underlying NAV.

Buying FBMKLCI-EA (0820EA) ETF, your result will be as good as index (which is not bad, considering that quite some fund under perform index!), from the point of your entry and the point of your exit.

Buying ICAP, you are hoping that the fund manager will outperform the index. So far, the result / record is not bad.

I have both in my portfolio.

Happy investing.

Disclaimer: I am not an expert in related field. I am just a serious amateur investor. Please make your own judgment.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-8 00:20 | 显示全部楼层
Personal quotable quote:

Most people I know study all the details before buying a phone.
Most purchased an investment not knowing what they buy.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-8 00:21 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pc255 于 2010-6-8 00:26 编辑

Part discussion on early retirement in another popular MY forum. Slightly edited..

Just a light-hearted and side tracking discussion:

- What do you do if you were to retire, say at the age of 40, and have a million RM?

Realistically being a millionaire, you can NOT buy everything you dreamed off. The big car, the big house, cruise 365 days a year, James Bond lifestyle etc. You can't even do that with 1 million USD. Try 100 million USD.

If we were to believe “The Millionaire Next Door.” by Thomas J. Stanley et la, US millionaire do not even act like that.
They continue to work, and are happy working. And I personally favour this view, as oppose to what the TV is telling us.

A few that I knew enjoy doing what they are doing, ie going about their work and fairly simple life. What they have over those that are not financially independent is something simpler, it is called a CHOICE. How they choose to spend their time, and/or doing quality work, and being able to contribute to society and/or family / friends. And have the freedom to undertake things they like, and not to accept things that they do not favour spending their time on. And they are happy and contented with life.

My 2 sens.

Why 100? I should think that 10 is enough.

Let's take every big boy wet dream. The so called James Bond lifestyle:

Yachts at a few continent. These cost a few million USD each, and you need crew to operate them.
Fast car at a few places. Felali and Rambo and Porsche cost million, and I need a few of them, London, Paris, NY, KL, HK...
Plus a big Benz / BMW / Bentley with Ahmad everywhere.
Private plane on chartered.
Holiday villa, and private island around the world. Hotel wont make it.
And girls, with expensive taste to boot.

I am starting to think that 100 million USD wont cut it.. Maybe a billion.

Then again, why should anyone follow the dream of a fantasy make believe created for an idiot box?

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-8 09:19 | 显示全部楼层
Management and 老人股 (Was part of private message exchange - edited)

(Was referring to not a lot of people study 老人股)
Having been through it myself, I realised that I had missed out the basic. The analogy is like walking into the forest, and study the ants. My feeling is that people ought to understand the 老人股 first, before anything else. so that when one were to consider a share like Mah Sing or QL, you can compare it with Nestle, BAT etc, and in what aspect of the business that you like about QL.

If people do not study the management strenght of Nestle, how do they say if QL management is good. How do you compare it with, or benchmark it with. (In no way I am implying QL management is bad, but just as an example here). People hear say, or by guts, yes - QL management is good?

In fact you can do that with management, logistics, market share, market segment, price point, consumer target, market entry barrier etc etc etc. A long long list of things that you can compare it with.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-8 09:22 | 显示全部楼层
Discussion on “购买种植股,锁在保险箱,留给子孙。” - (A multi part exchange via private message - edited)

- 购买种植股,锁在保险箱,留给子孙 - the angle of this statement suggested keeping and staying invested for long term in CPO related company. In the longer term kind of investment, management make a big difference

Management, and why it matter if you stay invested for long term.

Owned both TWS and PPB stock for years. I can assure you that TWS hardly had that kind of return figure that PPB had. There are many factors, but in my humble opinion, it come down to the management. I can also tell you that, at Central Sugar Refinery (CSR) (subsi of TWS), the old management was previously a dotted line reporting to PPB - Kuok group actually manage and run both MSM and CSR, but owning only small part of TWS. CSR was certainly very well run and highly profitable in those days, just as MSM was. At corporate level for TWS, those who then spend (they call it invest!!) the profit from CSR - we can see the result today long after the decision is made. What a difference it makes!

Another good example is Tanjong, BSport Toto & Magnum.

These days, for me at least, to invest in a company, doing homework on the management is part of the required things, on top of the hard figures.

All this, if you were to stay invested for longer period.

Doing own homework with regards to this questions "购买种植股,锁在保险箱,留给子孙。" is a very good exercise.
It forces your hand, that you have to choose carefully, consider the situation, and prospect, the management etc. You tend to find company that have long prospect, and certain management excellence. And part of the key is to stay invested. This is where a lot of people did not hold on to the fact that even if you have chosen a multi-bagger, you did not get to enjoy it if you sell too early.

If interested in CPO related company, I would suggest to read annual report of the following company:
PPB Oil palm, Wilmar, United Plantation, KLK then BKawan. IOI, Sime Darby.
And not just read the last year, but try 2001, 2005, 2008, 2009. Something that are a few years apart. 2001 year is a relative good year to start, as any CPO company hardly make good money then.

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发表于 2010-6-9 01:03 | 显示全部楼层
Today just received United Plantation annual report,that is wonderful report,inside a lot of particular to read..I need to start to read my annual report liao by detail liao.

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发表于 2010-6-9 01:30 | 显示全部楼层
9# 蛋散

蛋散兄,你对 UTD Plantation 的老板有认识吗?对他有何评语?因为他也是 FIMACORP 的老板,而 FIMACORP 唯一令我不放心的就是管理层的诚信度罢了。

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-9 10:03 | 显示全部楼层
9# 蛋散

I had not received my copy. Is it the abridged version or the full version?
I much preferred the full version, as reading it online is not quite the same as reading the copy on your hand.

Some of the companies when we asked for the full version, they can be a little 猫, as normally my wife will call up. We always use the excuse that my mother does not use computer and would like to read the full copy, then will these company secretary send a copy. The truth is I am the only one reading it, while my mum will gladly recycle it along with the old newspaper. These days, it is starting to become a little more useful for my kids to use as playbook, after I am done reading it.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-9 10:18 | 显示全部楼层
10# 夜孩子

If you are referring to Ahmad Riza bin Basir, based on Utd Plantation annual report, I think he only hold about 1.3% of the share. I would hardly consider him the 老板 for Utd Plantation. The real 老板 for Utd Plantation is the late Tan Sri Bek-Nielsen, now probably in the hand of his 2 sons.

For United Plantation the management are probably all outsider. As can be seen from the senior management team, if they are family member of the 老板 there would have been a lot of westerner name on it. The mark of a professional management team. Even the board is quite balance.

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-9 10:35 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pc255 于 2010-6-9 10:46 编辑

[Discussion on ciggy butt vs superior company] - was a multi-part private message exchange - edited.

My humble take:

The essence of it is this:
You can get a ciggy butt, and maybe return the same 20%, but you always had to worry about selling it, and think about the proceed reinvestment.

Superior company, once you do your homework - you can keep sticking with it, and hence my take is is this:
"I found it far superior, and simpler to think and simplify investment thought process base on the wonderful company or moat issue than value / undervalue (especially the classic ciggy butt case)"

You can read a little more about it on some of my discussion: ... amp;page=1#pid44837

班门弄斧一下, and my humble opinion.

---------- ---------- ---------- ----------

Capital size does not matter. The rational is when your ciggy butt reaches the level that you no longer consider undervalue, maybe fair or over value, you need to sell (action X1), and the consider/study another share to buy (action x2), and the find a price that is undervalue (action x3), and finally buy (action x4). And sometimes, the time you sell, is not the time for reinvestment (during market bull) as nothing is undervalue around then. This is highly difficult to self discipline.

Give you example of how it is easier for wonderful company, I bought F&N around 02 or 03, and it had compounded at +/-15% on price till today. + a few percent of dividend, I would get quite reasonable return. And the best part is that I can keep buying more F&N. Easy as that. PPB, around 25% CAGR (then again PPB is quite exceptional)

It was never ciggy butt undervalue, but it is a great company. Same with PBB,  "old" Maxis, Petdag etc.

I had some comments around in F&N / PPB thread. Do look it up.
In M'sia market, there is always some wonderful company that can be bought at any time, and it quite likely will be around fair value. Best example is Nestle, or even at a stretch BAT.

The only thing about buying wonderful company (which is not directly written by Buffett, but highly implied) is you had to hold it long. "My favourite holding period is forever"

Last thing about whether ciggy butt work well in M'sia share, well it didnt work for me as I am amateur, and do not have all the time to study all the ciggy butt out there, but I do think that there are people who make it work. Just not me.

Happy investing!


参与人数 1威望 +2 收起 理由
ckwong8086 + 2 Tq for your good sharing.


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发表于 2010-6-9 10:39 | 显示全部楼层
It is a real pleasure reading your posts! Thanks for sharing!

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-9 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
14# ee33

You are most welcome.

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发表于 2010-6-9 10:57 | 显示全部楼层
12# pc255


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发表于 2010-6-10 22:57 | 显示全部楼层
I had request the full version with them..The full version is  definitely different with abridged version...
GenM never give me full version report

Tomolo will update more particular in my personal thread..

PS: 夜孩子

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发表于 2010-6-10 23:41 | 显示全部楼层



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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-11 16:57 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pc255 于 2010-6-11 17:09 编辑

Just happen to see 2nd brother discussion on his blog. Allowed me to copy a little bit over:

"大把人认为价值投资重点是 margin of safety,然而它的中心点却是质量 (qualitative)。它包括如下:-
1. 管理层的素质 (competency of the management)
2. 营利的素质 (quality of profit)
3. Economic franchise
4. Pricing Power
5. 成长的行业
6. Low cost producer
7. Innovation
8. Efficient 的管理
9. 保守的 company policy " - 2nd brother - on investing


I had been thinking on what I refer to as "Wonderful company / moat" issues, and I mentioned about it.
2nd brother had very graciously shared his thought on public. The qualitative aspect.

My respect to him, for those who are able to write it down understand it better than those whose who are thinking about it in our head.

Sometimes, as an investor myself, I might thought I know these criteria, I just do not analyse it point by point. (ed: Actually, I just plainly do NOT know.)

I knew I am slightly blinded by these qualitative issues, as I generally just look seriously at a company, and simply ask "Oh, is this company wonderfully run? Very big moat?? Good brand? Good consumer acceptance?..". And I partially off-set it by selecting easier to understand stock / industry to invest. Food, edible oil (and related plantation), petrol, gaming and/or power. Bank I just choose the most reputable one, PBB. When I look at CIMB, and have the thought that it used to come from Bank Bumi, I avoided it. Not giving it the serious qualitative analysis thought that I should have. In fact probably NOT able, had I wanted to.
The other good example is glove industry. Do not understand the qualitative aspect of things, I avoided it. I mean, I have no competitive understanding of that industry.

Looking back, I am very blinded by quality issues a few years back. I knew it is there, but I knew it as an abstract.
I also remember 2nd brother discussed about the change of a company had gone through, and that change can bring a change in valuation / premium to shareholder (I remember reading it somewhere in Cari, if there is any still remember the link and share it here, you have my thanks!). These 2, I might say, really goes hand in hand. CIMB being probably the best example in recent years.

2nd brother, if you are reading this, THANK YOU VERY MUCH for your shared thoughts and experience.

Too much comfort is discomforting!
Time to sharpen MY thought process. (Instead of being lazy...)

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 楼主| 发表于 2010-6-11 17:23 | 显示全部楼层
19# pc255

As a follow up, how do 各位大大 here look for, understand and study these qualitative aspect of the industry and/or share that you (might) own and/or are considering?

Especially if you are not in the related industry?

How do you build / expand your circle of competence?

"Invest within your own circle of competence.” Charles Munger / Warren Buffett
"Invest in What You Know" - Peter Lynch

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