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My share investment style

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发表于 2014-6-17 15:57 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 KoonYewYin 于 2014-6-23 10:12 编辑

How I started investing in shares?

In 1983 I had my heart bypass surgery in London. While recuperating in Harley Street Hospital, I read from the newspaper that the Hong Kong stock market crashed because Margret Thatcher, the British Prime Minister failed to secure the extension of British rule of Hong Kong. The British had a 99 years lease of Hong Kong and a part of Kowloon. The lease was expiring and the Chinese Communists would  soon take over.

Everyone was afraid and everything was on cheap sale.  The stock market crashed.

At that time, I did not know how to select shares basing on the fundamental criteria of value investing.  I did not know how to invest for long term or short term or timing the market to hit and run. I just bought shares that went down the most in terms of percentages. You can say that I started blindly.

As soon as China agreed to offer 50 years extension of capitalist system, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded and I sold all the shares I bought initially with more than 200% profit. With all the proceeds, I bought HSBC and other better known shares. After about 2 years, I made so much money that I bought 46% of the small stock broking company in Hong Kong that gave me margin finance which help me make more profit.

After this short experience in Hong Kong, I decided to retire as Managing Director of Mudajaya and be my own boss. Why should I work so hard when it is so easy to make money from the stock market? Moreover, all my profit is tax free and I don’t have any management problem. I do not need to deal with people which I find most difficult.

After my retirement, I have more free time to read. I have learned the investment philosophy of Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch, Benjamin Graham and others. I found the best book is called “Valuegrowth Investing” by Glen Arnold.

What is value growth investing? It means that the best stock to buy must be undervalued and it has strong profit growth prospect.

What is long term investment?

If I ask you all what long-term investing mean to you. I might get many different answers. Some may say 10 to 20 years, while others may consider five years to be a long-term investment. Individuals might have a shorter concept of long term, while institutions may perceive long term to mean a time far out in the future. This variation in interpretations can lead to variable investment styles.

For investors in the stock market, it is a general rule to assume that long-term assets should not be needed in the three- to five-year range. This provides a cushion of time to allow for markets to carry through their normal cycles. However, what’s even more important than how you define long term is how you design the strategy you use to make long-term investments. This means deciding between passive and active management.

Long-Term Strategies

Investors have different styles of investing, but they can basically be divided into two camps: active management and passive management. Buy-and-hold strategies – in which the investor may use an active strategy to select securities but then lock them in to hold them long term – are generally considered to be passive in nature.

Active Management

On the opposite side of the spectrum, numerous active management techniques allow you to shuffle assets and allocations around in an attempt to increase overall returns. There is, however, a strategy that combines a little active management with the passive style. A simple way to look at this combination of strategies is to think of a backyard garden. While you may plant different crops for different results, you will always take the time to cultivate the crops to ensure a successful harvest. Similarly, a portfolio can be cultivated along the way without taking on a time-consuming or potentially risky active strategy.

Market Timing

When it comes to market timing, there are many people for it and many people against it. The biggest proponents of market timing are the companies that claim to be able to successfully time the market. However, while there are firms that have proved to be successful at timing the market, they tend to move in and out of the spotlight, while long-term investors like Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett tend to be remembered for their styles. Studies have shown that most day traders cannot outperform the market index because of the transaction cost.

The Bottom Line

If volatility and investors’ emotions were removed completely from the investment process, it is clear that passive, long-term (20 years or more) investing without any attempts to time the market would be the superior choice. In reality, however, just like with a garden, a portfolio can be cultivated without compromising its passive nature. Historically, there have been some obvious dramatic turns in the market that have provided opportunities for investors to cash in or buy in.

My investment style

Basically my style is a mixture of all the above mentioned strategy including the use of margin finance to increase my profit. With due respect to professional fund managers, they consider current earning EPS the most important criterion. But, I consider future profit growth prospect is more important. For example, Jaya Tiasa which has very poor current earning but it has tremendous profit growth prospect. That is why it has gone up about 30% in the last few months.

It is easier for me to explain by showing you the shares I own and how I manage them. In view of the sustainable palm oil price increase in the near future, most of my investment are plantation shares eg Jaya Tiasa, Kulim, TH Plantations  and Sarawak Plantations. Besides plantation, I have about 20% worth of my total investment on Mudajaya, MFCB and Success Transformers. I have only 7 counters so that I can closely keep track of them.

All my shares are pledged for margin finance. I normally use up to about 80% of the allowable limit.

How do I use Price Charts

I do not use charts to trade frequently. I only look at the long term price charts to buy shares that have been depressed for a long time. For example, Kulim is now selling at around Rm 3.50 which is lower than the average price in the last 3 years.  This is simply not logical. It the last 3 years, Kulim’s plantation land especially those in Johore must have appreciated in value. Moreover, Kulim would have planted more oil palms and also made profit in the last 3years. I believe the price of Kulim will soon be re rated.

How I take advantage of the share price fluctuation

It is important to note that any share cannot continuously go up or come down for whatever reason. I must take advantage of this phenomenon to make money. For example, I have sold some Jaya Tiasa because it has gone up 30% within a few months so that I have funds to buy Kulim, TH Plantations and Sarawak Plantations which have been depressed for a long time. Jaya Tiasa is still my largest holding.

Please note that all the shares I bought are meant for long term. But it does not mean that I cannot sell them to get money to reduce my borrowing or to buy some other shares which are relatively cheaper.

Those who wish to know more about my investment style or have questions to ask, please attend my seminar on 1st June as according to my announcement.

我如何开始投资股票?

1983年,当我在伦敦进行心脏搭桥手术,哈雷街医院休养的时候,我从报章上看到香港股市崩盘,原因是英国首相,玛格丽特·撒切尔,无法延长英国

在香港的统治权。英国拥有香港以及一部分九龙半岛的99年租约。而该租约已到期,中国共产党也即将接手管治。

香港人感到非常恐慌,几乎把所以货物都以低价出售。股市也随之崩盘。

那时,我并不会以价值投资的方式来投资股票,也不知道如何长期或短期投资,更不会看入市以及卖出的时机。

我就直接买入跌幅最多的股票。或者你可以说,我是盲目的开始。

当中国宣布维持一国两制50年不变后,香港股市随即反弹而我则以两倍的回酬卖了我早前买下的股票。

随后,我便买入汇丰银行以及其他更广为人知的股票。

大约两年后,我收购了香港一家小型股票经纪行的46%股份,进而获得取证券融资以便将来能够利用它来赚更多的钱。

经过香港这的小小的经验,我决定辞去我在成荣集团的董事总经理职务,全职投资。

我问我自己:既然在股市里能那么轻易的赚钱,为何我还要那么辛苦的工作?

而且,我在股市里所得到的利润都是免税,也不用为管理生意而感到烦恼,更不需要和他人打交道。

我退休后,我有更多的时间来阅读,去学习沃伦·巴菲特,彼得·林奇,本杰明·格雷厄姆和其他人的投资理念。

我找到一本我觉得是最好的书籍是,那是一本由格伦·阿诺德著作的 “Value growth Investing”。

什么是价值投资?投资严重被低估,并具有较强的盈利增长前景的股票。

什么是长期投资?

如果我问大家长期投资是什么,我可能会得到很多不同的答案。

可能有人会说10年至20年,也有其他人认为五年就等同于长期投资。

长期投资的期限对散户来说会比较短,而对机构而言则是更为长久。而这些不同的诠释也反应出不同的投资风格。

对一般投资者而言,长期投资的期限介于三至五年之间。这三至五年的时间也为市场周期提供一个缓冲期限

而比长期投资的定义更重要的是,你如何筹划你的长期投资策略。积极或被动,这取决于两者之间。

长期战略

不同投资者有不同的投资风格,基本上它们可以分为两大阵营:主动管理和被动管理。

买入并持有策略 - 投资者也许会策略性的买入股票然后长期持有,这通常被归类为被动管理

主动管理

而另一边厢则有众多的主动管理技术来教你如何重整以及分配你的资产进而获取更可观的回酬。

但是,也有些是结合了一些主动管理与被动式的策略。简单的举个例子来解释这种策略:你的投资组合就如你家的后花园,

虽然栽种不同的庄稼会有着不同的收成,但你始终要花时间去培养它,才能确保有好收成。

同样,一个投资组合可以在不耗时以及暴露于潜在风险的情况下持续成长。

市场时机       

谈及市场时机,不少人认同它,也有很多人反对。

市场时机的最大拥护者就是那些声称能够成功地捕捉市场时机的公司

然而,即便有些公司能够证明他们成功捕捉市场时机,但他们更向往聚焦于聚光灯下,

而好像彼得·林奇和巴菲特这些长期投资者,人们往往都会记住他们的投资风格。

有研究发现,基于交易成本的原因,大多数当日交易者无法超越市场指数。

底线

如果把市场的波动性以及投资者的情绪化去除,在不考虑入场时机的前提下长期投资(20年或以上)绝对是明智的选择。

而现实中,就像后花园般,投资组合可以在不损害其被动性的情况下持续成长。

过去我们可以看到在市场发生戏剧性情况时为投资者提供了入市的机会。

我的投资风格

基本上,我的投资风格就是混合上述所有策略,包括使用的证券融资,以增加我的利润。

专业基金经理们以每股盈利作为他们最重要的标准。但我认为未来盈利增长前景更为重要。

例如,常成的每股盈利差强人意,但它具有巨大的利润增长前景。

这也解释为什么它在过去的几个月已经上涨了约30%。

另外一个比较容易解释的方法就是告诉你我拥有的股票,并解释我是如何管理它们。

鉴于棕榈油在不久的将来可持续价格上涨,我的大部分投资都是种植股如再也常成,居林,TH种植和沙捞越种植园。

除了种植股,我把我投资总值约20%总额投资在成荣,MFCB和前锋。我只有7只股,这样我可以密切管理它们。

我把我所有的股份都抵押作证券融资。我通常使至用其可允许限度的80%。

我如何使用价格图表

我不常参照图表来交易。我只是看用长期价格图表来买被低估的股票。

例如,居林现在价钱大约RM3.50,比过去3年前的平均价格低。这是不合逻辑的。

在过去3年,居林的种植地特别是那些位于柔佛的种植地早就升值了。此外,居林在过去三年里也种植了为数不少的油棕树。

所以我相信,居林的价格会很快将被重新评级。

我该如何把股价波动的优势

我们必须明白无论任何因素任何股份不能连续上升或下跌,我们必须要把握这个现象的优势来赚钱。

举个例子,我已经卖出了一些常丰的股票,因为在短短几个月内它已经涨了30%,这让我有资金购买居林,TH种植和沙捞越种植园,

这些低迷了很久的公司。当然,常丰仍然是我的第一大仓。

请注意,我所买的股票都是长期投资。不过,这并不代表我不能卖这些股票来套利,减少我的借款或买一些相对便宜的公司。


The unofficial account of Koon Yew Yin (This account does not represent or attempt to speak on behalf of Koon Yew Yin)

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发表于 2014-6-17 16:15 | 显示全部楼层
Unless you are admin for Mr. Koon, I think it is better not to use his name as your user name to show respect.

点评

yes, using the same name and logo at the same time, may give people wrong impression that he is the one who personally write on it.  发表于 2014-6-17 17:43

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发表于 2014-6-17 16:39 | 显示全部楼层
carmen 发表于 2014-6-17 16:15
Unless you are admin for Mr. Koon, I think it is better not to use his name as your user name to sho ...

agree

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发表于 2014-6-17 17:45 | 显示全部楼层
"Why should I work so hard when it is so easy to make money from the stock market? "

i like this sentence.

点评

If everyone think like that where is the productivity come? For those who think like that do you have courage stop your work tomorrow?  发表于 2014-6-17 18:59

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发表于 2014-6-17 17:47 | 显示全部楼层

""The unofficial account of Koon Yew Yin (This account does not represent or attempt to speak on behalf of Koon Yew Yin)""


who the hell are you?

kid.....dun play-play here.....Mr. KYY is my idol.....

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发表于 2014-6-17 17:52 | 显示全部楼层
You are not Mr Koon personally, why use the title "My" share investment style? A bit misleading.

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发表于 2014-6-17 18:23 | 显示全部楼层
Don't kidding people pls.

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发表于 2014-6-17 18:34 | 显示全部楼层
carmen 发表于 2014-6-17 16:15
Unless you are admin for Mr. Koon, I think it is better not to use his name as your user name to sho ...

agree +1

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发表于 2014-6-17 22:18 | 显示全部楼层
anyway, nice sharing

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发表于 2014-6-18 15:52 | 显示全部楼层
Agree, better not use Mr Koon real name to post any his article. This is really misleading the reader.

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发表于 2014-6-18 16:46 | 显示全部楼层
thx for sharing

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发表于 2014-6-20 16:29 | 显示全部楼层
What is value growth investing?
It means that the best stock to buy must be undervalued and it has strong profit growth prospect.

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发表于 2014-6-20 23:48 | 显示全部楼层
carmen 发表于 2014-6-17 16:15
Unless you are admin for Mr. Koon, I think it is better not to use his name as your user name to sho ...

Agreed, especially if this is without Mr Koon's knowledge and agreement.

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发表于 2014-8-16 22:22 | 显示全部楼层
thanks for sharing

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发表于 2014-8-19 23:22 | 显示全部楼层
misguiding and misleading

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发表于 2014-8-25 18:52 | 显示全部楼层
ty for sharing

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发表于 2014-9-5 23:24 | 显示全部楼层
Don't kidding people pls.

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发表于 2014-12-4 13:07 | 显示全部楼层
thx for sharing

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